Veles Water Weekly Report - Feb 12, 2026

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NQH2O™ INDEX PRICE vs H2O FUTURES PRICE
 

_{Price Chart Based upon Daily Close}

The new NQH2O index level of $261.26 was published on February 11^th, up $0.25 or 0.10% from the previous week. The February contract is considered the front month. The futures prices closed at a discount of $9.26 to $10.01 versus the index over the past week.

Below are the bid offer prices on different expiries being quoted in the market.

H2O FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT
 

 Trend Overview

Current Price: 252 (▲ +0.40%)

Momentum

Price has stabilised following the recent decline, posting a modest daily gain.
The Stochastic Oscillator (%K 44.44, %D 30.93) has risen out of oversold territory and is turning upward, indicating improving short-term momentum rather than continued downside pressure.

However, the broader trend remains weak until higher resistance levels are reclaimed.

Moving Averages

Short-Term (SMA 5–30)

• SMA 5: 251
• SMA 10: 250
• SMA 20: 259
• SMA 30: 270

Analysis

• Price is slightly above the 5- and 10-day SMAs, suggesting early short-term stabilisation.
• However, it remains below the 20- and 30-day SMAs, meaning the short-term trend is not yet bullish.
• The 259-270 zone forms the first meaningful resistance band that must be reclaimed to confirm a recovery phase.
• Failure to hold above 250–251 would negate the stabilisation signal.

Long-Term (SMA 100–200)

• SMA 100: 350
• SMA 120: 369
• SMA 150: 374
• SMA 200: 368

Analysis

• Price remains far below all long-term moving averages, confirming that the medium- and long-term trend structure is still bearish.
• The 350–374 region now represents major overhead resistance and would require a sustained rally to challenge.
• Until these levels are reclaimed, any bounce should be treated as counter-trend rather than structural recovery.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K: 44.44
• %D: 30.93

Analysis

• Momentum has shifted upward from oversold conditions, signalling short-term recovery potential.
• The positive separation between %K and %D supports improving near-term sentiment.
• A move above 50-60 would strengthen the recovery signal, while a rollover below 20 would reintroduce downside risk.

Resistance & Support Levels

Resistance Zones

• 259-270: Immediate resistance from the 20- and 30-day SMAs.
• 350-374: Major long-term resistance cluster from the 100-, 120-, 150-, and 200-day SMAs.

Support Zones

• 250-251: First near-term support at the 5- and 10-day SMAs.
• ~230-240 region: Next historical downside support if 250 fails.

Summary

The Nasdaq Veles California Water Index Futures are showing early signs of short-term stabilisation, with price closing at 252 and momentum turning upward from oversold levels. 
Holding above 250–251 keeps the possibility of a near-term rebound alive, with 259–270 acting as the first resistance test. 
Despite this improvement, the broader trend remains bearish, as price is still deeply below the 350–374 long-term SMA cluster. 
Until those levels are reclaimed, any strength should be viewed as a technical bounce within a larger downtrend, rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

H2O FUTURES AND NQH2O INDEX VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
 

DAILY VOLATILITY

Over the last week the February contract daily future volatility high has been 0.28%.

For the week ending on February 11^th, the two-month futures volatility is at a premium of 7.94% to the index, down 0.88% from the previous week. The one-month futures volatility is at a premium of 7.99% to the index, down 0.27%. The one-week futures volatility is at a premium of 3.83%, a reversal of 4.98% to the index volatility.

The above prices are all HISTORIC VOLATILITIES. All readings refer to closing prices as quoted by CME.

Note the attachment is not an inducement to trade and Veles Water does not give advice on investments.

Disclaimer:

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