Veles Water Report - Feb 5, 2026

WELCOME TO WATERTALK

Subscribe to Nasdaq+ for full access

Exclusive content, detailed data sets, and best-in-class trade insights to rewrite your portfolio for tomorrow.

Try it Now

NQH2O™ INDEX PRICE vs H2O FUTURES PRICE

_{Price Chart Based upon Daily Close}

The new NQH2O index level of $261.01 was published on February 4th, down $3.84 or 1.45% from the previous week. The February contract is considered the front month. The futures prices closed at a discount of $10.01 to $16.85 versus the index over the past week.

Below are the bid offer prices on different expiries being quoted in the market.

H2O FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT

Trend Overview

Current Price: 251 (▲ +1.21%)

• The price remains in a deeply bearish structure, but the modest uptick today brings it directly into contact with the short-term resistance zone.
• There is no trend reversal signal yet, but a potential short-term base may be forming.

Momentum – Stochastic Oscillator

• %K: 5.77
• %D: 1.92

Analysis:

• The Stochastic Oscillator is beginning to lift from the extreme oversold zone. This early upward crossover (%K > %D) is a mild bullish divergence, which could indicate that bearish momentum is beginning to stall.
• It is not yet a confirmed trend reversal, but further follow-through could suggest a relief rally attempt.

Moving Averages

Short-Term (SMA 5–30)

• SMA 5: 249
• SMA 10: 250
• SMA 20: 269
• SMA 30: 275

Analysis:

• Price has now closed just above the SMA 5 and SMA 10, suggesting a potential short-term momentum shift.
• However, SMA 20 and SMA 30 remain higher, creating a resistance cluster from 269–275.
• To confirm a change in short-term trend, price needs to sustain above 250 and push through 269.

Long-Term SMAs

• SMA 100: 360
• SMA 150: 376
• SMA 200: 372

Analysis:

• These longer-term averages remain far above current price levels, indicating the broader downtrend is still fully intact.
• The 360–376 zone will serve as heavy resistance in any medium-term rally scenario.

Key Resistance & Support Levels

Resistance:

• 250–251: Just cleared short-term resistance (SMA 5 and 10)
• 269–275: Key next resistance zone (SMA 20 and 30)
• 360–376: Long-term resistance zone (SMA 100–200)

Support:

• Near-term: 248 (prior daily low)
• Next major support: 230 (visual cluster from historic chart levels)
• If 248 breaks again, it opens room for potential new lows

Summary

The futures have shown a modest gain, rising to 251, and is now hovering above short-term moving averages for the first time in weeks. The Stochastic Oscillator has crossed upwards, a subtle sign of potential short-term recovery from oversold conditions.

However, price remains well below key longer-term averages, and the bearish trend structure remains intact. The region between 269–275 is critical for any bullish continuation. Until this is cleared, rallies are likely to be sold into.

Key levels to watch:

• A close above 269–275 would mark the first major resistance break since the drawdown began.
• A drop back below 248 would invalidate the short-term bounce and reopen downside risk.

H2O FUTURES AND NQH2O INDEX VOLATILITY ANALYSIS

DAILY VOLATILITY

Over the last week the February contract daily future volatility high has been 2.77%.

For the week ending on February 4^th, the two-month futures volatility is at a premium of 8.82% to the index, up 0.07% from the previous week. The one-month futures volatility is at a premium of 8.26% to the index, down 0.04%. The one-week futures volatility is at a premium of 3.83%, up 0.09% to the index volatility.

The above prices are all HISTORIC VOLATILITIES. All readings refer to closing prices as quoted by CME.

Note the attachment is not an inducement to trade and Veles Water does not give advice on investments.

Disclaimer:

Nasdaq^® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing. ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.