Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

#marketseverywhere | No Markets Outlook until 11/6 - ON VACAY! 

| "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." -James Carville

* source: JP Morgan

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

!! CLICK HERE TO TAKE OUR INVESTOR RELATIONS PULSE SURVEY !!

| An orderly de-risking | "Defensive hedges mean de-risking has been orderly. Cleaner positioning, oversold technicals and better seasonals raise the chances of relief rally...But medium-term outlook is tricky and bonds look increasingly attractive to us post recent selloff, albeit more in EU than US. 

-Emmanuel Cau, Barclays

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

| stubborn inflation?

* source: Oxford Research

| the various ways higher yields impact the economy/markets...

* source: Piper Sandler

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities + Oil LOWER / Dollar + TYields HIGHER

| MSFT (higher) + GOOG (lower) reported earnings this morning

THEMES: US10YR Yield @ 5%ish | equity market sentiment falling | escalation of Middle East tensions | S&P trading below key 200 moving average | Chinese markets lower, CSI300 index diving below its 1yr low today + lowest level since Feb 2019 | About 25% of S&P 500 companies have reported, 78% have exceeded expectations | earnings season has underwhelmed thus far

-by Shon Wilk

DJ +0.2% S&P500 -0.7% Nasdaq -1.3% R2K -1.1% Cdn TSX -0.2%

Stoxx Europe 600 -0.1% APAC stocks HIGHER, 10YR TYield = 4.900%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $1,977, WTI -0%, $84; Brent -0%, $88, Bitcoin $34,343

* source: CNBC

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2) #QualityMatters

* source: Piper Sandler

3) Job market still strong enabling Fed to stay hawkish | economy resilient but may potentially weaken | financial conditions tightening + yields rising abruptly may turn Fed dovish

* source: CME FedWatchTool, created by Gavin Zaentz

4) Tech/Comms top outperformers on the year | defensives remain top underperformers...

5) A blockbuster Q3 GDP growth expected but future remains uncertain

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

6) This week:

-global flash PMIs on Tuesday will be among the key highlights.

-preliminary US Q3 GDP report + personal income and spending data.

-ECB decision on Thursday

-corporate earnings: focus on Big Tech firms + major oil + healthcare companies.

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

Investors Flee ESG Funds Without Clear Targets, Morningstar Says - BNN 

-Investors in Europe are dumping ESG funds that lack clear sustainability goals, as the market braces for a major overhaul of environmental, social and governance regulations.

-More than €20 billion euros ($21 billion) flowed out of so-called Article 8 funds in the third quarter, bringing exits over the last six months to €42 billion, according to a report by Morningstar on Wednesday.

Exclusive: Shell cuts low-carbon jobs, scales back hydrogen in overhaul by CEO - Reuters 

-Shell will cut around 15% of the workforce at its low-carbon solutions division and scale back its hydrogen business as part of CEO Wael Sawan's drive to boost profits, it said on Wednesday. 

-The staff cuts and organizational changes come after Sawan, who took the helm in January, vowed to revamp Shell's strategy to focus on higher-margin projects, steady oil output and grow natural gas production.

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Blinken says he will work with China's Wang Yi to calm Middle East-NIKKEI
• Blinken tells UN: US does not want war with Iran but will defend itself-RTRS
• Southern Gaza in Israel's sights as world leaders seek pause in fighting-RTRS
• Inside the secret rifts and rows consuming EU'S top corridors-BBG
• China: Investigation on Foxconn’s operations is ‘normal law enforcement’-SCMP
• Europe’s money markets are on alert for stricter ECB bank reserve rules-BBG
• European Central Bank meets as bond markets wobble-CNBC
• Bank of England rate decision on knife-edge-TELE
• China money markets suggest even more PBOC support required-BBG
• German business sentiment improves but recession fears remain-RTRS
• The age of debt-fuelled profligacy is well and truly over-TELE
• World at ‘tipping point’ following government debt binges-TELE
• Chalmers resists RBA rates risks-AFR
• Japan weighs spending of $33 bln on measures to fight inflation-RTRS
• Some big Wall Street investors call top in Treasury yields after 5% hit-RTRS
• Trump ally Mike Johnson becomes latest GOP house speaker nominee-MSN
• Scoop: House GOP scrutinizes Biden's aid to Palestinians-AXIOS
• China needs deep reform, not temporary fixes, to reanimate economy-SCMP
• China to choose fiscal muscle over big reforms to revive economy-RTRS
• Midea Group applies for Hong Kong listing; biggest IPOs in recent history-SCMP
• China Stimulus to make ‘big impact,’ ex-PBOC official says-BBG
• China's Country Garden deemed in default on dollar bond for first time-BBG

• AstraZeneca boss Sir Pascal Soriot commits another 5 years at the top-TIMES
• Petrobras' capital reserve to be used only to pay dividends, says CFO-RTRS
• Vinted weighs €200mn share sale as sustainable fashion booms-FT
• Singapore's GIC ties up Vedanta Group's Sterlite Transmission $1 bn JV-ET
• Ferrexpo chair urges Kyiv to spare miner in anti-oligarch campaign-FT
• Magellan chairman drops $100b ambitions as CEO departs-AFR
• Google-parent Alphabet's cloud division misses revenue estimates-RTRS
• Visa profit beats estimates on post-pandemic travel boost-RTRS
• CoStar Group trims annual revenue forecast on weak property market-MSN
• U.S. tells Nvidia to halt shipping some AI chips to China immediately-NIKKEI
• CFM says more than half of engines w/ suspect parts have been removed-MSN
• Boyd Gaming bottom line miss leads shares down 3%-MSN
• UFC signs its biggest-ever sponsorship deal with Anheuser-Busch-BBG
• Bank of Montreal is exploring sale of RV loan portfolio-BBG 

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Oil holds losses as fears of a wider Middle East war ease back-BBG 2) Iraqi PM says foreign oil companies in Kurdistan to resume production within a month if agreement reached over contracts-RTRS 3) US energy M&A slows in Q3, but October's mega deals to spark activity – Enverus-RTRS 4) Saudi Arabia to continue cooperating with Russia in OPEC+ deal - RIA quotes minister-RTRS 5) U.S. likely to tighten sanctions on Iran crude oil amid Israel-Hamas war, RBC’s Helima Croft says-CNBC