A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.
#marketseverywhere | stubborn & moderately elevated inflation a risk?
| Sept Consumer prices +0.4% , >expected (+3.7% YoY) / Core CPI (excludes food + energy) +0.3% MoM (+4.1% YoY)
| US equities mixed while yields touch higher
* source: CNBC
| money supply is "contracting by the most since the 1930s. Although correlation doesn’t equal causality, inflation has recently tracked the developments in money supply with an 18-month lag in the US. So it’s all going to this script to date." -Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid
* source: Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid
| Rate hike odds have been falling as Fedspeak has been dovish with the abrupt rise in yields | *FOMC MINUTES SHOW ALL AGREED FED CAN 'PROCEED CAREFULLY'
* source: CME FedWatch Tool, created by Gavin Zaentz
* source: CNBC
| Milton Friedman's "Fool in the shower" analogy... constantly tinkering with the hot and cold controls because he doesn't realize that there is a lag between the time he orders up a temperature change and when such a change occurs.
* source: Oxford Economics
| rate hikes mostly done? easing may risk the return of inflation... | "the main central banks have likely reached their respective terminal rates"
* source: Deutsche Bank
1) KEY TAKEAWAYS
1) Equities MIXED / Oil + Dollar + TYields HIGHER
| Weekly AAII (Retail) Sentiment: Bullish rose sharply, bearish ticked down and neutral fell to the lowest level since last October.
| Initial jobless claims aren't budging: remaining at a level that is consistent with very few layoffs
DJ +0.0% S&P500 -0.1% Nasdaq -0.1% R2K -1.0% Cdn TSX +0.2%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4% APAC stocks HIGHER, 10YR TYield = 4.612%
Dollar HIGHER, Gold $1,873, WTI +2%, $85; Brent +2%, $87, Bitcoin $26,719
2) at the index level, prices closely follow earnings...
* source: Factset
3) Q3 earnings expected to be FLAT YoY | limited downside from here but will there be any upside?
* source: BofA
4) Most strikes in 40 years could mean higher wages & lower margins
* source: BofA
5) THIS WEEK:
* source: Grindstone Intelligence
2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE
Greenpeace Canada files regulatory complaint over Suncor's climate disclosures - Reuters
-Environmental group Greenpeace on Thursday said it has filed a complaint against Suncor Energy (SU.TO) with the Alberta Securities Commission (ASC), arguing that Canada's second-largest oil producer is failing to fully disclose climate-related risks to shareholders.
-The complaint alleges Suncor removed warnings that oil sands projects could potentially become stranded assets in a low-carbon emissions scenario from its 2023 climate report.
Goldman Executive Maps Path to Duck Hedge Funds’ ESG Attacks - BNN
-Inflation has created “a little bit of a headwind” for traditional renewables sectors, Goldstein said in an interview. As companies face rising input prices, “some of the circular economy, waste and materials themes become particularly attractive,” he said, without singling out any stocks.
3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS
- Fed’s Collins says rates close to, possibly at peak level-BBG
- ECB needs patience before declaring inflation win, Vujcic says-BBG
- ECB should discuss early end to bond buying scheme: Kazaks-RTRS
- Holzmann wants ECB to cap remuneration of banks’ deposits at 90%-BBG
- Higher interest rates punish low paid, says Bank's Swati Dhingra-BBC
- BOJ policy hinges on developments in next round of wage talks-BBG
- US inflation expected to have cooled slightly in September-FT
- UK economy rebounds partially in August driven by services output-FT
- Ruble surges as Russia reimposes some exporter capital controls-BBG
- IMF Latest: Israel-Hamas war dims global outlook, Georgieva says-BBG
- Joe Biden intensifies diplomatic effort to contain Gaza conflict-FT
- Gazans endure ‘catastrophic’ conditions as territory pounded by Israeli jets-FT
- Janet Yellen warns Iran that nothing is ‘off the table’ for sanctions-FT
- Rule curbing AI chip exports to China under final review-RTRS
- China’s newest move to support stocks seen limited in impact-BBG
- Analysis: China property creditors face worsening restructuring terms-RTRS
- China bans new offshore brokerage accounts in capital control move-RTRS
- China’s credit market stress eases after onshore defaults drop-BBG
- House adjourns without voting on Scalise as speaker-WASHPO
- Exclusive: Miners seek partners for copper assets as M&A heats up-RTRS
- Platinum equity emerges as lead bidder for Jacobs CMS unit-BBG
- Goldman sues Malaysia as 1mdb settlement dispute escalates-BBG
- Superagent Ari Emanuel takes shots at rival CAA, Paramount, Fox-BBG
- India's Go First airline gets expression of interest from Jindal Power-RTRS
- Xiaomi holds talks with carmakers about possible partnerships-BBG
- Honda, Mitsubishi to launch electricity grid using EVs-NIKKEI
- Wall Street is marking up forecasts in sign profit slump is likely over-BBG
- IRS says Microsoft owes an additional $29 billion in back taxes-CNBC
- Workers walk out of Ford's most profitable plant as UAW expands strike-AXIOS
- European companies halt IPO plans on concerns over market conditions-FT
About the author
Massud Ghaussy, CFA, is part of Nasdaq's IR Insights team and delivers daily insights that empowers readers to get a sense of the important issues impacting the day's trading.