Upstart Holdings UPST is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, after the closing bell. Its quarterly results are likely to reflect growth in revenues and earnings per share.
In the last reported quarter, this fintech company, which provides an AI lending platform, came up with an adjusted net income per share of 46 cents, delivering a miss of 2.13%.
Over the preceding four quarters, UPST’s adjusted net income per share surpassed the consensus estimate on three occasions and missed once, the average beat being 28.23%. The graph below depicts the surprise history of the company:
Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Upstart Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Upstart Holdings, Inc. Quote
UPST: Factors at Play
As Upstart approaches its first-quarter earnings, investors are focused on whether improving borrower demand can translate into higher funded volume while preserving credit quality. Recent quarters showed year-over-year stronger conversion rates and continued emphasis on underwriting discipline, so the key question is whether those improvements carried into the first quarter or not.
Profitability metrics will also be closely watched, especially contribution margins, as Upstart has been prioritizing growth and a broader funding base. The company’s recent quarter showed a lower contribution margin than prior periods as the company leaned more into growth and customer acquisition.
Funding momentum remains a key support. The $1 billion forward-flow agreement with Eltura Ventures and Aperture Investors and continued additions of credit union partners such as Harborstone Credit Union and Rize Credit Union have expanded Upstart’s lending capacity. These initiatives suggest its broader lending platform is moving closer to becoming a meaningful contributor to overall volume and revenues.
Upstart is expected to show continued growth in core personal loans, supported by newer AI underwriting models that improve accuracy on untapped borrowers, alongside ongoing AI driven enhancements in verification and bank partnerships that help sustain its conversion rate around 19.4%. Management expects to continue growing its core personal loan business at a healthy clip via consistent model improvements and growth wins this year. Beyond personal loans, Upstart's first-quarter 2026 results may highlight progress in newer verticals. Auto and home loans grew rapidly in the fourth quarter and are expected to continue in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $289.36 million, indicating an increase of 35.62% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. Moreover, the consensus mark for earnings stands at 39 cents per share, calling for a rise of 30% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Estimates have increased 4 cents over the past 30 days for UPST.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for UPST:
Our proprietary model predicts a likely earnings beat for Upstart this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
Upstart has an Earnings ESP of +6.03% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are two stocks from the Zacks Internet-Software industry — Arista Networks ANET and StoneCo STNE — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.
Arista Networks, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on May 5, has an Earnings ESP of +2.79% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
StoneCo, slated to release quarterly numbers on May 14, has an Earnings ESP of +2.76% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
