Markets

Trefis Week in Review

The Week in Review

Below is a summary of the activity on Trefis during the past week that we thought you would find interesting.

Insights from the Week

Technology Media & Telecom

SAP recently reported its Q2 earnings and revenue from its primary businesses continues to grow steadily while its new initiatives and products have performed well despite competition …

Apple's advantage in the tablet world is that its iOS works for both the iPhone and iPad, which helps developers in synchronizing development tasks …

Although AMD is expected to launch its bulldozer CPU in later half of this year, we have reduced our market share expectations for the full year 2011 from slight gains to slight losses …

  • LinkedIn's Driving Higher Engagement but Stock is Still Stinky on August 5, 2011

Given the ever increasing presence of smartphones and tablets, LinkedIn's apps should be a major contributor in increasing job listings for both its recruitment and premium subscription segments …

  • Constant Contact Will Regain $24 on Customer Growth and Ave. Spend on August 5, 2011

Constant Contact recently posted better than came in better than expected; however the stock has crashed almost 20% because its Q3 guidance figures were well below expectations …

  • Why Sprint is Getting Creamed on August 5, 2011

Its Lightsquared announcement and subsequent lack of a clear 4G strategy disappointed Sprint watchers causing the market to puke the stock 20% lower …

  • Economy's Weak Sauce is No Sweat for Sirius on August 5, 2011

Sirius XM reported its Q2 earnings recently that showed the company is increasing its penetration of overall vehicle sales despite continued softness in the economy …

  • AOL Q2 Earnings Preview: What We're Watching on August 5, 2011

For Q2, AOL's search ads and subscription business will continue to struggle after posting a 21% and 24% decline in revenues, respectively, for Q1 …

  • Nvidia Earnings Preview: What We Are Watching on August 5, 2011

Given the fact that the stock has had some significant swings this year jumping 60% from January to February before sliding to current levels, the upcoming earnings will be crucial to the stock's direction …

  • How Pandora's Stock Takes Off on August 4, 2011

After surging post-IPO, Pandora's stock is drifting lower as concerns surface over the competition posed by SiriusXM Radio and the Spotify-Facebook partnership …

  • ADP Goes for Small Businesses to Beat Dismal Jobs Reports on August 4, 2011

Companies with fewer than 50 employees added 58,000 jobs nationwide in July while businesses with 50 to 500 workers hired 47,000 people …

  • What Windows 8 Means to Microsoft's Stock on August 4, 2011

This division has been flagging lately and posted a 2% decline in the recent earnings announcement while the rest of its businesses like Server & Tools and Entertainment & Devices divisions reported solid revenue growth …

  • Survey Says iPhone 5 Demand is Sizzling on August 4, 2011

According to the survey of 216 mobile phone users, 29% of respondents currently own an iPhone while 64% of respondents plan to buy the iPhone as their next phone …

  • Its Yahoo! for Monster as HotJobs Deal Drives Traffic on August 4, 2011

Monster is poised to gain significantly from its integration with Yahoo's HotJobs. The trend is evident from Monster's Q2 earnings results, which reported revenue growth of 25% …

  • RIM's Turnaround Comes in 2012, New Phones Fall Short on August 4, 2011

RIM recently announced plans to launch 5 new smartphones based on BlackBerry 7 operating system in a bid to revive its declining fortunes …

  • Groupon Should Spare Investors the Pain and Sell NOW on August 3, 2011

Like coupons, the real money of the model is probably in infrastructure and database management, not owning a dedicated front-end site …

  • Symantec Heads to $20 with Antivirus & Storage Combo on August 3, 2011

As its 45% market share of the global consumer antivirus market is gradually declining, Norton hopes that these new offerings will help stem this slide …

  • Business Spending Props up Motorola Solutions on August 3, 2011

Motorola recently announced its Q2 earnings that showed strength its barcode scanners used by businesses, especially from retailers, transportation and logistics verticals …

  • Dish Earnings Preview: What We're Watching on August 3, 2011

Although the company mentioned that the implementation of new prices started off rather smoothly, we think that there is a possibility that the new pricing plans would have led to a higher subscriber churn in Q2 …

  • Adobe Embraces HTML5 with Edge, Heading to $35 on August 3, 2011

With PC sales dropping and tablet sales showing tremendous growth eventually many developers will move on to HTML5 to create content as it is compatible with most platforms and doesn't need any special plugins …

  • Oracle Adds InQuira to its Bench on Way $37 on August 3, 2011

The technology from InQuira will help improve the capabilities of Oracle's existing CRM products including its Fusion and Siebel CRM applications …

  • Competitors Smack Sprint Around Though Selloff Overdone on August 3, 2011

Sprint recently announced earnings higher customer acquisition costs, lower average revenues per customers and a decline in postpaid subscribers stood out as worrying trends …

  • Pandora's Value Contingent on Strong Growth in Ad Revenues on August 3, 2011

The online display, rich media and video advertising market was $9.8 billion in 2010 and is expected to grow at a 15% annually to $17 billion in 2014, according to market research firm IDC …

  • How a Recovering Travel Industry Could Hurt Expedia & Priceline on August 2, 2011

As major hotel groups beef up their own online sales channels and rely less on OTAs due to a better aggregate demand, these trends could spell trouble ahead for the most popular OTAs …

  • Verisign Looks for Growth from Registering Anything on August 2, 2011

Upside to our forecast could arise from market share gains as new rules will allow businesses to register any domain name. This could lift our forecast for total user base of .com and .net domain names …

  • LinkedIn's Outlook Depends on the Rise of Recruiting via Social Media on August 2, 2011

According to a Comscore report, LinkedIn recorded 34 million visitors in June 2011 up 63% from a year ago while MySpace's visitor count dropped 50% to 33.5 million …

  • Accenture Eyes a Big Opportunity in the Insurance Market on August 1, 2011

Technology outsourcing and consulting major Accenture has seen its stock shoot up over 50% in the past year and now trade close to an all-time high of $63.66 …

  • SAP's New Businesses Support Growth Outlook on August 1, 2011

Revenues from the its two main revenue streams - software and support - increased by 26% and 10% year over year (yoy) in Q2 while its total revenues were up 14% yoy …

  • Margin Squeeze Limits Amazon's Upside on August 1, 2011

While we believe that investments in its business and technology will ultimately help Amazon in the longer term, we need more confidence on its margin outlook before revising our valuation …

  • DirecTV Earnings Preview: ARPU Trend and Subscriber Growth in Focus on August 1, 2011

As fiber-optic services and bundled packages gain popularity, DirecTV could see this weigh on its subscriber growth and average revenue per user (ARPU) trends …

  • Comcast Earnings Preview: What We're Watching on August 1, 2011

Although the company has been gaining digital subscribers, its analog cable subscription drops have been more than offsetting the digital gain …

  • Tiny Prints Acquisition Drives Shutterfly's Earnings on July 31, 2011

Shutterfly posted revenues of $75.8 million, which was up 62% over Q2 2010 owing in large part to the contribution of Tiny Prints that it acquired last quarter …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Consumer, Retail, & Automotive

  • Daimler Heads to $82 on Higher Benz Sales and China Growth on August 4, 2011

Daimler's planned product launches for the rest of the year promise to make 2011 a record-year for the company as we expect sales to surpass the 1.9 million vehicles sold in 2010 …

  • Love the Chips and Guac, But Hold Off on Chipotle Stock on August 3, 2011

And though we love the fare, we think the stock is a tad too richly priced right now with inflation pressures mounting and softish consumer spending looming …

  • Wal-Mart is Fumbling Online but Still Worth $73 on August 3, 2011

We estimate that Wal-Mart's intrinsic value is around $250 billion ($73/ share) while Amazon is worth close to $110 billion, yet Wal-Mart's online sales in 2010 brought in less than $10 billion vs. around $34 billion for Amazon …

  • Chinese Customers to Shrug Off Price Hikes in the Name of Beauty on August 2, 2011

We believe Estee Lauder raising prices in China will have negligible impact on its China sales given robust demand for beauty and skin care products, providing relief from margin pressures …

  • P&G Earnings Preview: Focusing on Volume Growth on August 2, 2011

In the upcoming earnings we're less worried about margins and looking for volume growth give the company's ambitious goals to penetrate new markets …

  • Unilever Earnings Preview: What Aren't We Watching? on August 2, 2011

As the second largest consumer goods company in the world after Procter & Gamble, we look for volume growth metrics and pricing trends after weak results from Europe recently …

  • Luxury Brands the Best Weapon for Jones Against Stubborn Cost Pressures on August 2, 2011

The results were in line with our expectations with the margins improving over the last quarter owing to increased contribution of luxury brands in the overall product mix …

  • Altria's Valuation Depends on Charging More for Smokes on August 2, 2011

The company recently announced its Q2 earnings in which it reported solid operating margins and retail share in premium tobacco brands, particularly Marlboro …

  • CVS Caremark: Finding its Stride in the PBM Business on August 1, 2011

After suffering from some major setbacks in 2009-2010, CVS has been aggressively trying to grow its Pharmacy Benefits Management ( PBM ) business with high profile contracts from CalPERS, Medco Health and Aetna …

  • Tesla Earnings Preview: New Retail Stores & Reservations in Focus on August 1, 2011

However the positive response to Tesla's new store openings and increased orders for its Model S and Roadster are encouraging, and we expect this to be the focus of results …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Financial Services

  • New Revenues Will Help NYSE Navigate Choppy Trading Environment on August 4, 2011

Non-trading related revenues such as market data, listing and technology services revenues increased by $18 million which reflects the increasing diversification of the company's sources of revenue …

  • RBS Earnings Preview: Profits May Remain Elusive on August 4, 2011

With the company indicating that it is difficult to determine the exact impact of the PPI settlements, the bank will likely take charges of at least £1 billion ($1.6 billion) …

  • MasterCard Earnings Preview: All About Transaction Volumes on August 2, 2011

In this quarter, we expect the company to report strong quarterly results buoyed by growing number of processed transactions and a healthy increase in international gross dollar volume …

  • Taking Stock of Bank of America's Mortgage Business on August 2, 2011

The reported loss of nearly $9 billion - attributable completely to its mortgage business - has raised more questions about the actual exposure of the bank to the real estate market, which was previously thought to be under control …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Energy & Natural Resources

  • Chesapeake's Headed to $41 on New Initiatives on August 5, 2011

The outlook for the company looks positive it plans to invest $1 billion over the next 10 years in technologies that drive the demand for natural gas …

  • SunPower Earnings Preview: What We're Watching on August 4, 2011

We expect that solar module manufacturers will report a difficult quarter as the industry has had to contend with with subsidy cuts in Italy - the world's second largest market for solar …

  • Andarko Cashes in on Liquids Business on August 3, 2011

Anadarko boosted its production of liquids by 13% in Q2 and now comprise 43% of Anadarko's sales volumes helping the firm improve its revenue and margin outlook …

  • ConocoPhillips Goes Down Under to Satisfy Chinese NGL Demand on August 2, 2011

The sharp increase in Chinese gas consumption has resulted in many LNG suppliers with Australian operations, such as Chevron and BG Group, ramping up capacity …

  • Exxon Heads to $92 Using Oil Profits to Bet on Gas on August 1, 2011

A higher proportion of natural gas sales has resulted in a negative impact of $1.06 billion on upstream earnings as gas prices continue to remain depressed because of excess production in the U.S. …

  • A Banged up BP is Still Worth $55 on August 1, 2011

While the company reported higher revenues on the back of high oil prices, its production levels fell by 11% because of divestments and lower production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico …

  • First Solar's Earnings Preview: Panel Pricing & Profitability in Focus on August 1, 2011

With stalled projects resulting in an oversupply of panels, pricing in the market has dropped by almost 20%, and we look for signs that prices have bottomed and that demand may pick up …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Basic Materials

  • China Demand Supports Vale Value at $41 on August 4, 2011

The booming demand for iron ore in China helped the company reach its record revenues of $15.3 billion in the second quarter - a gain which was partially offset by rising fuel and labor costs …

  • Newmont Will Shine with Gold as a Safe Haven on August 4, 2011

The lower ore grades may have hurt Newmont's production numbers in 2011 with the annual production pegged at 5.3 million ounces of gold and 200 million pounds of copper …

  • Rio Tinto Preview: Cashing in on High Commodity Prices on August 2, 2011

We expect strong results on account of high commodity prices and stable production during the period. We also look for updates on some of the key projects that the miner is working on …

  • Market Reaction to U.S. Steel Overdone, Sticking with $47 on Firm Outlook on August 1, 2011

The capacity utilization of the flat-rolled products was 81%, and the company faced some losses in shipments in its European operations due to weaker demand and some planned maintenance items …

  • Strong Copper, Gold Prices Carry Freeport McMoran on July 31, 2011

The company released its Q2 earnings where earnings more than doubled as it produced and sold more copper and gold to take advantage of high metal prices in the spot market …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Industrials & Transportation

  • Defense Cuts May Loom Large over Boeing as U.S. Debt Deal is Struck on August 4, 2011

Boeing may well have to bear the brunt of the U.S. debt deal, which plans to cut government spending by $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years, including a planned cut of $350 billion in the U.S. defense budget …

The growth was fueled by the North America market for oilfield services, spurred by the increased demand for onshore services as well the resumption of exploration in the Gulf of Mexico …

The results were in line with our expectations with the margins improving over the last quarter owing to increased contribution of luxury brands in the overall product mix.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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