Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities mostly HIGHER + TYields mostly HIGHER | yield on 10YR Japanese government bonds reach its highest level since 2014, at 0.66%

DJ +0.1% S&P500 +0.4% Nasdaq +0.6% R2K +0.4% Cdn TSX +0.2%

Stoxx Europe 600 +1.0% APAC stocks HIGHER, 10YR TYield = 4.346%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $1,894, WTI +0%, $81; Brent +0%, $84, Bitcoin $26,017 

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Stocks to bitcoin, soaring US yields cast shadow over risk asset rally-RTRS
• Majority of small businesses believe US is in recession-RTRS

2) Yield back-up / peak rates? | Treasury yields hit highest since 2007 on elevated rate fears-BBG 

* source: Yardeni Research 

rates FLATish to higher for remainder of 23 and cuts expected in 2024 

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 

3) Stocks cheaper but not cheap

* source: JPM AM

4) Nasdaq Investor Flows by Bill Bailey

Institutional investors were buyers last week despite stocks finishing lower

-mostly selective in certain spaces of Tech, Energy, and Industrials while staying on the sidelines in other areas of the market

-heavy index outflows seen last week across many major ETPs and Index funds. This will be interesting to follow if this is a sign of sentiment changing or if this was a one-off as the trend has been consistent inflows/buying from these firms.

-Net buying from retail investors also stands out after a long stretch of net selling. they are showing interest in consumer stocks which is an interesting strategy given the growing concern on consumer purchasing power diminishing this fall.

* source: Nasdaq Investor Flows 

5) Dividend/income equity factors continue to be underperformers YTD while Growth outperformers as Yields rise... 

6) "Delinquencies are climbing (now above pre-Covid levels for autos and credit cards), despite near record-low unemployment. So when labor cools going into the recession, credit is bound to worsen. A lot." -Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler

* source: Piper Sandler

7) Performance: no recent direction with Growth vs Value, Large Caps back to outperforming

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

8) Fed's Jackson Hole symposium = highlight for investors NEXT WEEK. +investors focus on global flash PMI prints + durable goods orders in the US + sentiment indicators across Europe.

9) Equity flows = positive but passive mgmt (ETFs) > active mgmt (mutual funds)

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

OFF TODAY

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Sudden rally in China stocks has traders scratching their heads-BBG
• Strategists see dip-buying opportunity arising from stock rally’s pause-BBG
• China’s rate caution shines light on $56tn banking system-FT
• House Freedom Caucus fires warning shot over government shutdown-AXIOS
• Goldman sees US shutdown over spending 'more likely than not'-RTRS
• North Korea: Camp David agreements possibility of 'thermonuclear war'-RTRS
• China’s blueprint for an alternative world order-FT
• Qantas Airways nears new Boeing 787 widebody order-RTRS
• Equinor is exploring sale of $1 billion Azerbaijan assets-BBG
• APA Group readies Pilbara power buy, results day raising-AFR
• Small caps Rox, Battery Age, Pantera and Ecofibre rattle the tin-AFR
• Pub baron seeks green light to lift Star stake-AFR
• Shell receives final bids for UK North Sea Gas assets-BBG
• Young Poong, Lotte Global Logistics to form battery recycling supply chain-KED
• Microsoft submits fresh Activision deal to UK regulators-FT
• CEOs extol benefits of AI on earnings calls but not in official filings-FT
• S&P downgrades multiple US banks on growing liquidity worries-RTRS
• Nvidia earnings will be major test for AI demand, market rally-RTRS
• SoftBank’s Arm unveils plans for biggest US IPO in nearly 2 years-FT
• Subway nears $9.6 bln sale to Arby's owner Roark - WSJ-RTRS
• Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Iraq oil minister in Turkey to discuss resuming northern oil exports-RTRS 2) Oil market falls into holiday torpor-RTRS 3) Iran’s booming oil flows surge above 2 million barrels a day-BBG 4) Russia’s Flagship Oil above $60 does little to halt G-7 services-BBG 5) India's July Russian oil imports dip; Saudi import down to 2-1/2-yr low -trade-RTRS