Thoughts from Themes: The Buck Doesn’t Stop Here

The market is sending mixed signals. Earnings were strong, but positioning flipped defensively. Crypto broke psychologically and technically, while fundamentals remain intact. And the dollar is reminding everyone why it’s still the world’s safe haven. This is a week where macro requires nuance, not binary takes. Now that election day uncertainty is resolved, we could see some clarity return. The question: was last week the beginning of a reset? Or the clearing of froth before the next leg?

Macro Minute

The third-quarter 2025 U.S. earnings season has revealed a resilient corporate landscape, even with much uncertainty, a non-committed Federal Reserve, and a government still in shutdown mode. However, risk-on in the market took a big shift and the biggest investors began to hedge. Many in the market saw this as a sign of bearish sentiment and began to derisk and as is often the case, the legs of many retail investors began to wobble while their hands flailed and hit the sell button worried about too high valuations.

Tech giants including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple led the earnings charge, with Amazon notably surging on robust cloud and retail results. However, the market has shown a discerning tone, and many suffered regardless of results. Companies missing expectations, such as Meta and Tesla, were punished.  AI-related firms like Palantir, AMD, and Supermicro that showed solid results and guidance were crushed this week as well, despite impressive earnings that reflected sustained enterprise demand for AI infrastructure and analytics.  Nvidia, who doesn't report until later in the quarter, wasn't spared either, even as the sector’s fundamentals remain strong, supported by capital investment and expanding use cases across industries.  This bifurcation

underscores investors’ focus on execution and guidance amid macro uncertainty, and a new willingness to hedge positions. Scary, but this is all noise and truth be told, is the sign of a healthy market. If it was truly a bubble, there would be no fear: just exuberance.

So how can we process this? The macro uncertainty of recent weeks should be getting closer to clarity now that election day in the US has passed. Consensus believes that US legislature will finally come to the table and reopen the government, perhaps this week, providing more visibility into the economic numbers and inflation. This will create a clearer picture for the Federal reserve to perhaps continue its rate decreases.

The way I see it, the capex for AI is continuing to expand, and if you believe it continues, this could be an opportunity to buy the dip – beyond short-term volatility – in structural growth themes like AI and crypto. AI is reshaping productivity and enterprise software, while crypto offers decentralized infrastructure and alternative stores of value. Combined with strong earnings momentum and easing monetary conditions, these trends suggest a constructive outlook for innovation-driven investors.

Bitcoin: Blip or Breakdown?

Bitcoin dipped below $100K very briefly and after hitting a new high a few weeks back has seen nothing but downward pressure.  The return of a past question has resurfaced: "can Bitcoin go to zero?" and the best reply I can think of is the famous line from tennis’s great John McEnroe when he so memorably argued a call at Wimbledon years ago: "YOU CAN'T BE SERIOUS!"

This volatility is most likely short-term, driven by profit-taking

from Whales, ETF outflows, and macro jitters. Long-term fundamentals remain strong, with bullish catalysts pointing toward renewed upside. Bitcoin falling below the $100,000 mark is more psychologically significant than anything else, triggering the fear impulse that has plagued investors since the 17th century’s tulip mania. But the decline was more of a combination of factors all occurring at once, including massive long liquidations exceeding $300 million, ETF outflows, and profit-taking by long-term holders following Bitcoin’s surge to $126,000 in October. Combined with macro uncertainty, including skepticism around Big Tech’s AI-driven valuations, broader risk-off sentiment, a strengthening dollar, and a more hawkish tone from the Fed, a correction was seemingly predictable.

But despite the pullback, many traders view this correction as a healthy reset rather than a structural breakdown. Technical analysts highlight support zones between $88K and $95K, suggesting Bitcoin may be approaching a bottom. Galaxy Research, while revising its year-end target to $120K, maintains a bullish long-term view, citing continued institutional interest and the resilience of Bitcoin’s network fundamentals.

From a forward-looking perspective, several bullish catalysts remain intact. Institutional accumulation is picking up and firms like Strategy (MSTR) continue to buy the dip, reinforcing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. Despite recent outflows, spot Bitcoin and other crypto ETFs have broadened access and legitimized crypto as an asset class. The Fed’s recent rate cut and weakening dollar trends improve liquidity conditions, which is historically favorable for Bitcoin, and level 2 and 3 emerging platforms are attracting capital, signaling investor appetite for next-gen crypto projects.

Ultimately, while Bitcoin’s dip below $100K reflects short-term turbulence, the structural case remains bullish. With strong support levels, institutional conviction, and improving macro conditions, Bitcoin is well-positioned for a rebound—and potentially a new leg higher into 2026.

What’s Driving the Dollar:

In early November, the U.S. dollar climbed to multi-month highs against major currencies, reversing its earlier-year weakness. This rebound is underpinned by robust economic indicators, including solid GDP growth, a resilient labor market, and sticky inflation near 3%. Despite a 25 basis point rate cut in October, the Federal Reserve has signaled caution about further easing, helping maintain attractive yield differentials that favor dollar-denominated assets. Global investors are recalibrating portfolios toward the dollar amid renewed trade tensions, policy uncertainty in Europe and Asia, and diverging central bank trajectories. While the European Central Bank and Bank of England have moved more aggressively to cut rates, the Fed’s more measured stance has reinforced the dollar’s relative appeal.

Looking ahead, key drivers of the dollar’s trajectory include:

• Inflation dynamics: If U.S. inflation remains elevated, the Fed may delay further cuts, supporting the dollar.
• Interest rate differentials: Wider gaps between U.S. and foreign rates will attract capital inflows.
• Global risk sentiment: In times of uncertainty, the dollar benefits from its safe-haven status.
• Trade and fiscal policy: Developments in tariffs, deficits, and government spending could influence investor confidence.

Despite structural challenges, the rise of crypto, deficits, and questions around Fed independence, the dollar is still the best show in town, and

its role as the world’s reserve currency remains intact. Its demise may one day come if the US doesn't get its house in order, but it certainly won't happen overnight. I would anticipate more volatility around rates decisions, tariffs, inflation, and the ascent (or lack thereof) of crypto.

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This Week’s Major US Economic Reports & Speakers

Monday, November 10

None Scheduled

Tuesday, November 11

Veterans Day: Bond Market Closed

10:25 AM Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks

6:00 AM NFIB optimism index

Wednesday, November 12

9:20 AM New York Fed President John Williams speaks

10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson speaks

10:20 AM Fed governor Chris Waller speaks

12:15 PM Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks

12:30 PM Fed governor Stephen Miran speaks

4:00 PM Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks

Thursday, November 13

8:30 AM *Initial jobless claims

8:30 AM *Consumer price index

8:30 AM *CPI year over year

8:30 AM *Core CPI

8:30 AM *Core CPI year over year

9:20 AM New York Fed President John Williams speaks

12:15 PM St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks

12:20 PM Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks

2:00 PM Monthly US federal budget

3:20 PM Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks

Friday, November 14

8:30 AM *US retail sales

8:30 AM *Retail sales minus autos

8:30 AM *Producer price index

8:30 AM * Core PPI

8:30 AM *PPI year over year

8:30 AM *Core PPI year over year

10:00 AM *Business inventories

10:05 AM Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks

2:30 PM Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks

* Data subject to delay due to government shutdown

Disclosures:

All data sourced from Bloomberg as of November 7, 2025, unless otherwise cited.

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