SpaceX just might be the hottest stock that everyone wants to own, but no one can buy.
SpaceX's most recent launch -- the AsiaSat 6, sent into orbit aboard a Falcon 9 rocket on Sept. 8. Photo: SpaceX .
PayPal co-founder and serial high-tech entrepreneur Elon Musk is juggling leadership roles at three of the 21st century's hottest enterprises: electric-car maker Tesla , solar panel lessor SolarCity , and space launch company SpaceX. Over the past 12 months, SolarCity incurred $47 million in losses, while Tesla lost roughly four times as much. SpaceX, in contrast, is said to be both profitable on a generally accepted accounting principles basis and cash flow positive.
Unfortunately, you can't own it. So far, Musk is keeping SpaceX private. Of his three companies, it's the only one that has not yet held an IPO.
But what if it did?
The good news for investors is that for one reason or another, companies -- even profitable, popular companies like SpaceX, which probably don't really need to -- very often eventually go public . One day, we might all have a chance to own a piece of SpaceX. But if and when that day arrives, how much should we pay for this stock?
According to SEC filings, the most recent known sale of SpaceX equity occurred in November 2010 , when the company raised $50.6 million in capital from an equity offering. This offering followed a March 2009 offering of $60 million worth of SpaceX equity.
Prior to that, the company raised $29 million in August 2008 , $30 million in March 2007 , $50 million in March 2005 , and $10.1 million and $15 million in August and December 2002 , respectively. Tally it all up, plus an additional $100 million initial investment from Elon Musk himself, and we can assume that, because SpaceX is known to be profitable, its stock is worth at least $345 million.
In fact, SpaceX stock is probably worth quite a bit more than that. Figuring out how much more, though, is tricky.
Crunching the numbers
As of last summer, SpaceX had generated more than $4 billion in revenue. That works out to a minimum of $333 million in average annual revenue over its 12-year lifetime. If you assume, as seems likely, that SpaceX's revenues started out small and have progressively grown over the past 12 years, its annual revenue today is probably several times that $333 million "average." Indeed, private companies-researcher "PrivCo" recently estimated SpaceX's likely 2014 revenues at just over $800 million.
Rival space launch companies Boeing and Lockheed Martin both sell for market capitalizations of 1.2 times annual sales. If we apply this same valuation to SpaceX, then SpaceX stock should be worth at least $400 million, and perhaps closer to $1 billion based on PrivCo's estimate of current revenues and peer price/sales multiples.
Crunching more numbers
SpaceX boasts that it already has a backlog of $5 billion worth of contracts to be performed for its customers, launching satellites into outer space, and ferrying supplies to the International Space Station. That's more money ahead than SpaceX ever made in its past 12 years. By way of comparison, at last report Boeing was telling its investors it had $440 billion in backlog, while Lockheed Martin had a backlog of $77.8 billion.
Now, with a market capitalization of $92 billion, investors are valuing Boeing at about 21% of the value of its backlogged work. At a $54.9 billion market cap, investors value Lockheed Martin at about 70% of its backlog. If we apply similar valuations to SpaceX's $5 billion backlog number, the stock should be worth anywhere from $1 billion (at Boeing's "price-to-backlog" ratio -- and right in line with the P/S valuation based on PrivCo's figures) to perhaps at as much as $3.5 billion (at Lockheed's price-to-backlog ratio).
Elon Musk's magic multiple
So you see: The more valuation calculations we throw at SpaceX, the higher the potential valuation seems to go. In that vein, here's one final thought: Investors love Elon Musk. They think the guy's simply magic.
The two companies that Musk has already brought public, Tesla and SolarCity, both sell for valuations that are truly immense multiples of their respective annual sales. And these are the two Musk companies that are not earning a profit. So how much more valuable will investors find SpaceX stock when it IPOs? Fast-growing, space tech-sexy, and profitable SpaceX stock?
It's impossible to know for sure. But I'll bet it will be a lot.
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Up, up, and away goes SpaceX's rocket ... and SpaceX stock, too? Photo: SpaceX .
The article SpaceX Stock: How Much Is It Worth? originally appeared on Fool.com.
Rich Smith has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends SolarCity and Tesla Motors. The Motley Fool owns shares of Lockheed Martin, SolarCity, and Tesla Motors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days . We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
