Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

#marketseverywhere | “Fortunately, societies have progressed despite almost universal ignorance of economic principles.” -Armen Alchian, American Economist

| recent sell-off | "softer [economic] data, growing geopolitical concerns, and ongoing scepticism about the chance of a Q1 rate cut" -Deutsche Bank

defensives have been outperforming / small caps underperforming = economic growth concerns back to the fore?

| Bond Traders Show Early Signs of Doubting Dovish Fed Pivot -BBG

| Fed signals end to QT may come sooner than previously thought -BBG

| German inflation rises to 3.8% in blow to rate-cut hopes -FT

* source: CME FedWatch Tool, created by Gavin Zaentz

* source: CNBC

| Red Sea shipping attacks by Houthis add to price disruption... | Spot Container rates surge by 173%

* source: Oxford Economics

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities MIXED / Gold + Dollar LOWER / TYields + Oil HIGHER

-busy macro week (jobs data Fri) + FedSpeak

-Red Sea + Houthis/Iran = geopolitical tensions rise

AAII Weekly (Retail) Sentiment - Bullish ticked up, bearish + neutral fell

DJ +0.2% S&P500 -0.0% Nasdaq -0.3% R2K +0.2% Cdn TSX -0.0%

Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2% APAC stocks LOWER, 10YR TYield = 3.982%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $2,038, WTI +2%, $72; Brent +2%, $77, Bitcoin $42,250

2) soft economic data 1: manufacturing sector begins and ends the year in contraction

* source: Oxford Economics

3) soft economic data 2: JOLTS signaling slowly cooling labor market conditions | the hires rate fell back to 3.5%, which is the lowest since 2014 apart from the pandemic months of March and April 2020

* source: Oxford Economics

4) Citigroup Economic Surprise Index falling...(softer economic data)

* source: Yardeni Research

5) Busy week for macro data with Friday's job report perhaps the most important...

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

German Emissions Drop to 70-Year Low But Climate Goals Still Lag - BNN

-The country’s climate-harming emissions dropped to 673 million tons of CO2, a reduction of 73 million and below the government’s annual target of 722 million. However, only 15% of the overall emissions savings are because of higher energy efficiency standards or more renewables in the mix.
 

US’ first large-scale offshore wind project produces power for first time - Guardian

-The operator of the project said it expects to have five turbines operational in the early part of this year, before eventually having 62 turbines as part of the project, which will produce enough electricity to power 400,000 homes.

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Fed minutes cite lower inflation risks, concern 'overly restrictive' policy-RTRS
• Yen falls as earthquake raises bar for BOJ to end negative rates-BBG
• Spot container shipping rates soar 173% on Red Sea diversions-BBG
• Mortgage demand down 9.4% final week of 2023-CNBC
• All-cash home sales in Manhattan hit record high-AXIOS
• Expected pick-up in eurozone inflation raises doubts over rate cuts-FT
• China's Dec services activity expands at quickest pace in 5 months-RTRS
• Euro zone business activity shrank again in Dec, pointing recession -PMI-RTRS
• UK service firms end 2023 on a high - PMI survey-RTRS
• Japan Dec factory activity extends declines on market uncertainty- PMI-RTRS
• China’s LGFVs must repay a record $651 billion of bonds in 2024-BBG
• China Premier visits US-blacklisted chipmaker in show of support-BBG
• China fiscal spending will rise in 2024, finance chief says-BBG
• Bombing in Iran kills over 100, sowing confusion and speculation-NYT
• Hizbollah vows retaliation against Israel after killing of Hamas offbicial-FT
• US plans $162 million award Microchip Technology to boost production-RTRS

• Japanese to sell off £500m of UK rail assets-TIMES
• TikTok eyes $17.5 billion shopping business on Amazon’s turf-BBG
• Ex-Sports Illustrated publisher Brock Pierce want control of magazine-NYP
• Carrefour says it will not sell PepsiCo goods due to price hikes-RTRS
• Arctic Wolf bides its time on IPO-FT
• Short sellers target world’s top EV maker as rivalry intensifies-BBG
• Centre may sell stake in NLC, Mazagon Dock by March 31-MC
• Leonardo calls for reform of EU’s fragmented defence industry-FT
• Apple stock selloff extends on second rating downgrade this week-INV
• Microsoft adds AI key in first change to PC keyboard in decades-BBG
• GM leads US auto sales as industry concludes best year since pandemic-RTRS
• Cigna nears $3 bln-$4 bln deal to sell Medicare Advantage unit – source-RTRS
• Amazon’s video ad push expected to generate extra $5 billion in revenue-BBG
• Disney, Reliance start antitrust diligence on India media merger -sources-RTRS

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) 1) Protests shut down Libya's Sharara oilfield – engineers-RTRS 2) OPEC’s crude oil output steady before start of new production cuts-BBG 3) U.S. Department of Energy announces a solicitation to purchase oil for strategic petroleum reserve replenishment-ENERGY 4) Venezuela's 2023 oil exports rose, aided by US sanctions easing-RTRS 5) Russian oil losing competitive edge in India as prices rise-BBG 6) Singapore's middle distillates stock levels fall despite lower net exports-RTRS 7) Canada's long-delayed Trans Mountain pipeline plans line fill for March or May-RTRS