Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

"Clean thrust in UST 10-yr >4.3%" | "Bonds say "sell-the-last-hike"...equity & credit narrative flipping from "buy-the-dip" in H1 to "sell-the-rip" in H2"

-BofA's Michael Hartnett, The Flow Show

""No Mr. Bond, I expect you to die": James Bond, of course, never died; still… global yields keep rising despite massive inflows to Treasuries""

-BofA's Michael Hartnett, The Flow Show

* source: BofA, The Flow Show, Michael Hartnett

* source: Yardeni Research

| "Markets are being hit by a perfect storm amid surging rates, worsening data in China and poor summer liquidity. Soft landing complacency is gone, not uncertainty. So we continue to see merits in a barbell Cyclicals/Defensives allocation and a Value tilt. With investors rushing to cash, equities had small outflows this week." -Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

| "The relentless bond selloff continues to be the biggest story in markets right now, and yesterday saw yields hit multi-year highs across several countries. Lots of new milestones were reached, but the biggest was that the 10yr US Treasury yield rose another +2.4bps to 4.274%, which is its highest closing level since 2007. -Deutsche Bank

* source: CNBC

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities + TYields LOWER | yield curve continues to steepen | The Hang Seng is now ~21% off the late January high | Fed's Jackson Hole symposium = highlight for investors NEXT WEEK. +investors focus on global flash PMI prints + durable goods orders in the US + sentiment indicators across Europe.

DJ -0.4% S&P500 -0.7% Nasdaq -1.0% R2K -0.8% Cdn TSX -0.5%

Stoxx Europe 600 -1.1% APAC stocks LOWER, 10YR TYield = 4.270%

Dollar LOWER, Gold $1,891, WTI +0%, $81; Brent +0%, $84, Bitcoin $26,244

NOTABLE HEADLINES

· Money-market assets hit fresh record on Fed path uncertainty-BBG

* source: BofA, The Flow Show, Michael Hartnett

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Technology stocks suffer as real yields hit 14-year high-FT
• BofA’s warning of a ‘5% world’ sinks in with yields pushing higher-BBG
• Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index closes in bear market territory-CNBC
• Bitcoin falls nearly 8% as cryptocurrency slide continues-FT
• China’s State Developers Warn of Losses as Crisis Spreads -BBG

* source: BofA, The Flow Show, Michael Hartnett

2) "It’s been an emotional rollercoaster over the last year and a half. I say emotional because the market has been swinging up and down since early 2022 mostly on changes in market multiples (i.e., P/Es). In the most simplistic sense, P/Es are just plug figure that represent emotional views of investors.

...in order to see a broad-based market recovery we’d need to see a broad-based macro recovery." -Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler

* source: Piper Sandler

3) equity put/call ratio surges to 1.03 (highest since SVB - Chart 5)…a bad sign if stocks can't hold here

* source: BofA, The Flow Show, Michael Hartnett

4) Weekly flows: "As equity buyers go on strike, money market funds see surging inflows." -Barclays Emmanuel Cau

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

5) "the Conference Board leading index is still signaling an imminent recession..."

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

OFF TODAY

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

China’s state developers warn of losses as crisis spreads-BBG

• China’s hidden financial dangers erupt with shadow bank crisis-BBG
• China cenbank says it will keep policy 'precise, forceful' to aid recovery-RTRS
• US housing affordability hits worst point in nearly four decades-BBG
• British retail sales fall as wet weather depresses spending-FT
• Tourism at inflationary hotspots tests ECB-FT
• Japan's core inflation eases, bolstering view BOJ will stand pat-RTRS
• U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal-WP
• US has approved the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine-AP
• At Camp David Summit, Japan, SoKor and U.S. present a united front-NYT
• Instacart Plans for September IPO in Boost for US listings-BBG
• SpaceX wrote down $373M worth of Bitcoin back in 2021-2022: Report-CT
• China Evergrande seeks Chapter 15 protection in MN bankruptcy court-RTRS
• Reliance Industries Share Price: Jio Financial Services to list on Aug 21-CNBC
• Adani Group market capitalisation at six-month high, TAQA denies deal-CNBC
• TAQA looks to bet big on Adani’s power business with $2 billion investment-ET
• Americans keep on spending but big retailers doubt it’ll last-BBG
• Microsoft plans AI service with Databricks that could hurt OpenAI-Information
• Bid for US Steel promises national security through consolidation-RTRS
• ECB to raise objections to Italy's windfall tax on banks-RTRS
• Looming auto workers strike could cost $5 billion in just 10 days-CNBC
• Bankrupt Trucker Yellow gets $1.3 billion bid from rival Estes-BBG

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Oil market to tighten modestly in late 2023-RTRS 2) Kazakhstan could redirect oil exports via Russia's Baltic ports if Black Sea situation worsens-RTRS 3) Venezuela appeals to US Supreme Court in last ditch move to limit Citgo auction-RTRS