Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

#marketseverywhere | 

| recent large moves in yields & oil | Oil’s Slump Deepens Below $85 With Demand Under the Microscope -BBG | WTI down approx. 13% in the last week | recession risk rising?

* source: CNBC

| Narratives have been shifting quickly the last 1.5 years, could Treasury yields follow oil lower on recession risk? | will higher rates break the jobs market?

| job market still strong but expect market to rally on weakness as it would add pressure for Fed to cut rates | U.S. jobless claims increase slightly to 207,000 for the week -CNBC

* source: Oxford Economics

| Services sector remains robust, but weakness is on the horizon...

stubborn inflation - persistent moderate inflation?

* source: Oxford Economics

| "Breadth continues to deteriorate with the % of stocks trading below their 200dma falling to the lowest level since last November" -Piper Sandler

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

| THEMES: persistent moderate inflation a risk | yield back-up + dollar rising + oil falling | Fed = hawkish skip + rate cut expectations dialed back | "this year has been all about owning quality growth stocks" + high interest coverage stocks | a bifurcated market: wide gap between large cap and small cap performance | monetary tightening = equities compete w/ cash & bonds | continued strong labor market but will it break as monetary policy tightened? | consumer confidence weakening

| Earnings season around the corner, can corporates hold up? | October seasonally weak for markets | Can the consumer hold up with higher rates biting + gas & food prices rising? 

-by Shon Wilk, Nasdaq

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities + Oil LOWER / TYields HIGHER 

| AAII Weekly Retail Sentiment: Bullish & bearish sentiment up while neutral fell.

DJ -0.0% S&P500 -0.3% Nasdaq -0.4% R2K -0.3% Cdn TSX -0.1%

Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5% APAC stocks MIXED, 10YR TYield = 4.717%

Dollar LOWER, Gold $1,819, WTI -1%, $83; Brent -1%, $84, Bitcoin $27,967

2) record-high number of S&P500 companies issuing EPS guidance for Q3 2023 -Factset Insight

* source: Factset Insight

3) Valuations...disparity between large and small continues...

* source: JPM AM

4) THIS WEEK:

"Apart from the jobs report, key data releases also include the ISM indices. Investors will also focus on wages and business conditions gauges in Japan as well as the PMIs in China this weekend.

Central bank speakers next week include Fed Chair Powell and ECB President
Lagarde." -Deutsche Bank

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

ESG increasingly factored into investment decisions, say asset owners - IR Mag

-More than two thirds of asset owners say ESG issues have become increasingly material to their investment decisions over the past five years, according to new research. Just 15 percent say ESG has become less so. 

-Breaking down the E, S and G, environmental factors lead on materiality: more than half (52 percent) of asset owners say environmental factors have become more or much more material over the last five years. This is followed by 43 percent for governance factors and 38 percent for social.

BlackRock Adds Private Credit to a Booming ESG Fund Strategy - BBG

-BlackRock Inc. is tapping the private credit market to launch a new fund that will offer one of the fastest growing ESG investment strategies in the US. The Climate Transition-Oriented Private Debt Fund will become part of an investing platform at BlackRock that the asset manager says is worth more than $100 billion.

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Rising interest rates mean deficits finally matter-MSN
• Long bonds’ historic 46% meltdown rivals burst of dot-com bubble-BBG
• Fed’s bid to avoid recession tested by yields nearing 20-year highs-BBG
• Japan hints that even slow yen sell-off may trigger intervention-NIKKEI
• BOJ data suggests there was no forex intervention on Tuesday-RTRS
• German exports fall more than expected in August-RTRS
• BOK sees inflation stabilizing this month after Korea CPI beats-BBG
• Citi raises China GDP forecast, saying economy has bottomed out-BBG
• McCarthy’s ouster raises likelihood of a government shutdown-BBG
• US credit rating already includes another possible shutdown, Fitch says-BBG
• Raimondo says Huawei chip shows need for ‘different tools’-BBG
• Speaker chaos deepens Ukraine funding threat-AXIOS
• Taiwan to probe 4 firms accused of helping Huawei build chip plants-NIKKEI

• AT&T exploring options DirecTV as pay-tv subscriptions continue decline-BBG
• Apple considered, rejected switch to DuckDuckGo from Google-BBG
• TSMC in the US: can Taiwan’s chip giant overcome a culture clash?-FT
• Intel-backed Astera taps Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan for 2024 IPO-BBG
• Belgian intelligence monitors Alibaba hub over ‘espionage’ concerns-FT
• News Corp quietly sold out of Betr after 4 mos., despite $70m investment-AFR
• Reliance Retail Ventures plans another stake sale of $250-300 million-BUS
• Shell LNG push puts clean energy strategy in spotlight-FT
• JPMorgan steps up securitisation effort ahead of new US capital rules-FT
• Dutch bank ING urges policy shift to help it hit climate targets-RTRS
• UAW, automakers signal progress after days of stalemate, sources say-RTRS
• How the UAW strike is affecting workers and the economy-AXIOS
• Ozempic is making people buy less food, Walmart says-BBG
• Disney to offer discounts on children's tickets at theme parks-RTRS
• Clorox security breach linked to group behind casino hacks-BBG
• Health care workers launch strike against Kaiser Permanente-AXIOS 

• Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) OPEC+ panel holds oil policy steady as Saudi, Russia keep cuts-RTRS 2) OPEC+ gambles that crude isn't too expensive to crimp demand-RTRS 3) UPDATE 1-Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline ready for operations as of Wednesday, Ankara says-RTRS 4) Peak crude demand is fueling anger and argument in the world of oil-CNBC