A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Progressive (PGR). Shares have added about 0.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Progressive due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for The Progressive Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
PGR Q3 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates, Rise Y/Y on Higher Premiums
The Progressive Corporation’s third-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.05 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 20.3%. Operating revenues of $22.2 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.6%.
However, the bottom line increased 13.1% year over year while the top line increased 12.7%.
Net premiums written were $21.3 billion in the quarter, up 10% from $19.5 billion a year ago.
Net premiums earned grew 14% to $20.8 billion. The reported figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.1 billion.
Net realized gain on securities was $288 million, up 2% year over year.
Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — deteriorated 50 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 89.5. The reported figure exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 87.
September Policies in Force
Policies in force were solid in the Personal Lines segment, increasing 13% from the year-ago month’s figure to 36.9 million. The figure came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Special Lines improved 8% to 7 million, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
In the Personal Auto segment, Agency Auto increased 13% year over year to 10.6 million, while Direct Auto jumped 17% to 15.6 million.
Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment policies rose 6% year over year to 1.2 million. The Property business had 3.7 million policies in force, up 6%.
Financial Update
Progressive’s book value per share was $60.45 as of Sept. 30, 2025, up 30.4% from $46.36 as of Sept. 30, 2024.
Return on equity in September 2025 was 37.1%, down from 40.2% reported in the year-ago period. The total debt-to-total capital ratio improved 410 bps to 16.3.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 6.5% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Progressive has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Progressive has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
