Key Points
IonQ’s stock has plunged nearly 50% from its all-time high.
It could prove the bears wrong as it evolves and expands.
- 10 stocks we like better than IonQ ›
Quantum computers can perform certain computational tasks much faster than classical computers. Unlike classical bits, which store their data in zeros and ones, qubits (quantum bits) can exist in superpositions of states to simultaneously explore more possibilities.
That sounds like a major leap forward in computing, but quantum computers are also larger, pricier, and consume more power than their classical counterparts. They also output a higher percentage of errors. That's why they're still primarily used for niche research projects rather than mainstream computing applications.
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Nevertheless, the quantum computing market could still expand at a 30.6% CAGR from 2026 to 2034, according to Fortune Business Insights, as those systems become smaller, more scalable, more affordable, and more accurate. That rosy outlook sent many quantum stocks soaring to record highs last October. Still, most of the top names subsequently pulled back as macro headwinds rattled the market and drove investors away from the speculative sector.
One such quantum stock was IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), which has dropped nearly 50% from its all-time high. However, I believe IonQ could be the first quantum stock to prove the bears wrong and generate massive gains over the next decade for a few simple reasons.
What does IonQ do?
Most quantum computing systems accelerate electrons through superconducting loops to process data in a quantum state. Those electron-based systems are cheaper to manufacture than more advanced systems, but they must be cryogenically cooled.
By comparison, IonQ develops "trapped ion" systems that trap ions in an electromagnetic field within a vacuum chamber and manipulate them with tiny lasers. These room-sized systems are much larger than electron-based systems, but they don't require any refrigeration.
IonQ's systems process data more slowly than electron-based systems, but they're exposed to less environmental noise (which increases their accuracy) and have longer coherence times (so they remain stable longer). They're also designed to achieve direct qubit-to-qubit connections to any other qubit within a single system, while electron-based qubits can only interact with their nearest neighbor. Those key differences make IonQ's trapped ion systems preferable for customers who prioritize accuracy and flexibility over raw speed and scalability.
IonQ has built four systems: its older Aria system, its flagship Forte system, its data center-oriented Forte Enterprise system, and its newest Tempo system. It sells and leases a handful of those systems to research institutions, but it generates most of its revenue from its cloud-based quantum computing platform, which provides remote access to its own systems.
Why could IonQ prove the bears wrong?
From 2021 to 2025, IonQ's revenue surged from $2 million to $130 million. It's grown organically and inorganically, and most of its recent growth has been driven by U.S. government contracts. It even launched a new division, IonQ Federal, to house those contracts last year.
From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect IonQ's revenue to grow at a 67% CAGR to $600 million. It's expected to stay unprofitable for the foreseeable future. However, it still had $2.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.7 at the end of 2025.
With a market cap of $15.7 billion, IonQ might seem expensive at 26 times its 2028 sales. However, it could have plenty of room to grow as it launches even more powerful systems and expands its cloud computing platform. If IonQ matches analysts' estimates through 2028, continues growing its top line at a 30% CAGR through 2036, and trades at 20 times its current year's sales by the final year, its market cap could rise more than sixfold to $97.9 billion over the next decade. So even though 23% of IonQ's float was still being shorted as of April 15, this top quantum stock could prove the bears wrong as its business evolves and expands.
Should you buy stock in IonQ right now?
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
