Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report

(IBTimes) - July wheat was trading 3/4 of a cent lower late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look negative today with a sharp break in global equities, weakness in metal and energy markets and a firm US dollar. There were no deliveries this morning against the May wheat with the total for the month at 55. While oversold, the market faces significant supply news this week with the USDA crop production and Supply/Demand updates for Thursday. With a high yield expectation for the winter wheat crop and a quick start to the spring wheat growing season, traders see a possible jump in ending stocks for the new season to near 800-850 million bushels from 793 million this season. July wheat closed 6 cents lower on the session Friday and down 41 3/4 cents for the week. Weakness in outside market forces and a further sell-off in the other grains helped to pressure with July wheat trading to a low of 599 1/2. A turn up in corn helped to spark a short-covering bounce off of the lows. The early selling pushed the market down to a new contract low. KC wheat also pushed to new lows for the move and down to the lowest level for the nearby contract since July of 2010. Minneapolis wheat fell to new lows for the move with the nearby contract down to the lowest level since November of 2010. Algeria bought 120,000 tonnes of US hard red winter wheat for May shipment. India is exploring the possibility of exporting as much as 10 million tonnes of wheat (367 million bushels) from federal stocks to make room for the next crop. Stocks of wheat on April 1st were 53.3 million tonnes which is more than double the buffer stock requirement. Stocks are expected to rise to near 75 million tonnes by June 1st but total storage capacity is thought to be near 63 million. Another record size crop of 90.23 million tonnes is expected. The weak tone from financial markets helped drag milling wheat futures in Europe down 1.76% for the session Friday. The Commitments of Traders reports as of May 1st showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 27,947 contracts, a decrease of 16,251 contracts for the week and the short-covering trend is seen as a positive force. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net short of 52,000, down 15,940 or the week and the buying trend is supportive. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 215,122 contracts, down 2,960.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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