After a holiday-shortened week on the trading floor, this week we go a full five sessions. Right now in this week’s initial pre-market, major indexes are all down -1% or more: the Dow -360 points, the S&P 500 -60, the Nasdaq -260 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 -20. We’re currently bouncing off early morning lows — we may even see flat-to-higher numbers an hour from now once the opening bell sounds.
We saw year-to-date highs (in some cases, all-time highs) back in the third week of February this year (the Russell 2000 notched all-time highs back in November of 2024), and on April 9th — one week to the day from President Trump’s heavy tariff policy for almost all U.S. trading partners — we hit near-term lows. These took out a year or more of market gains in short order, as any investor knows.
Two days after those lows set in, Trump put a 90-day hold on most of his new tariff policy, and markets breathed a sigh of relief. But the bond market was less convinced that we were in the clear: at nearly +4.4%, 10-year bond yields are trending at heights not seen since 2007. This has helped keep equities markets in check for now.
After all, come July 10th — 90 days after the tariff paused was placed — we could be back in the same position we were at the start of this month. Should favorable deals for U.S. trade start coming down the pike from now until then, this would provide a good salve for investor sentiment (and even perhaps clear the air for companies providing guidance in their quarterly earnings reports). But despite assurances from the White House, we see no concrete evidence of these deals presently.
What to Expect Today & for the Week
Q1 earnings season ticks along this week, with results expected from Tesla (TSLA) Tuesday, Boeing (BA) Wednesday and Alphabet (GOOGL) Thursday, to name only a few. The heat really cranks up next week and beyond, when most of the marquee names post results.
On the economic news front, we’ll see flash U.S. Services and Manufacturing PMI, New and Existing Home Sales, a new Beige Book, Durable Goods Orders and final Consumer Sentiment. We’ll also hear from a plurality of Fed members throughout the week, although we won’t expect much diversion from what Fed Chair Powell expressed last week. That said, Powell has taken much heat from Trump since his comments, and conversations are ongoing whether Powell can expect to be replaced before his term ends next year.
Thus, if there’s something to expect this week, it’s this: the unexpected. Every week brings us new, substantial headlines, and there is nothing from this perch to suggest this will calm in the near term. Perhaps those promised trade deals will come through and we’ll be able to see some traction in the markets. Then again, perhaps we won’t.
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