Nvidia is set to release its fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 (FY2025) earnings on Wednesday, February 26, 2025, after market close, a highly anticipated event given its position as a leader in AI and graphics processing units (GPUs). This report covers the period from November 1, 2024, to January 31, 2025, marking the end of Nvidia’s fiscal year.
Financial Expectations
Analyst consensus projects record quarterly revenue of $38.32 billion for Q4 FY2025, reflecting a 73% year-over-year increase. This figure surpasses Nvidia’s own guidance provided in their Q3 FY2025 earnings report on November 19, 2024, where they forecasted revenue of $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2% Nvidia Newsroom. Net income is expected to reach $21.08 billion, up from $12.84 billion in the same quarter of the previous year, according to the same source.
Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings
Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, with 17 out of 18 analysts issuing “buy” or equivalent ratings, and one hold, as of February 20, 2025. The consensus price target is approximately $175, suggesting a 26% upside from the stock price of $134.43 on February 20, 2025. This bullish outlook is driven by expectations of continued strong demand for Nvidia’s data center chips, particularly with the rollout of the Blackwell platform, expected to generate several billion dollars in Q4 revenue.
Key Drivers and Risks
The primary driver for Nvidia’s expected performance is the surging demand for AI infrastructure. Major clients are significantly increasing capital expenditures: Meta plans to spend up to $65 billion on AI data centers in 2025, up from $39.2 billion last year, while Alphabet forecasts $75 billion, and Amazon could spend over $100 billion. This supports the high revenue and earnings projections.
However, there is some controversy around potential future demand, with recent news highlighting that a Chinese research lab, DeepSeek, has developed methods to train competitive AI models with less computing power, potentially reducing reliance on Nvidia’s high-end chips. This has led to a 11% drop in stock price from its early January 2025 high, but analysts believe the impact is mitigated by increased inference workloads and client spending.
Guidance and Investor Focus
Beyond the numbers, investors will closely watch Nvidia’s guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, with analysts forecasting nearly $42 billion in revenue. If management’s guidance exceeds this, it could alleviate concerns about the DeepSeek development. Additionally, updates on the Blackwell platform’s production ramp, now scheduled to begin in Q4 and continue into FY2026, will be crucial.
Historical Context and Trends
Nvidia has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, beating consensus in 16 of the last 18 quarters. For instance, in Q3 FY2025, revenue was $35.1 billion, up 94% year-over-year, and in Q2 FY2025, it was $30.0 billion, up 122% from the prior year. This consistent outperformance supports the expectation of a strong Q4 report.
Potential Market Reaction
Given the high expectations, the stock could see significant movement post-earnings. If results align with or exceed the $38.32 billion revenue, the stock might surge, especially with the consensus price target of $175. However, if guidance for FY2026 disappoints or if there are supply chain issues, there could be volatility, particularly given the recent sell-off due to Chinese AI developments.
Conclusion
In summary, investors should anticipate a robust earnings report for Nvidia on February 26, 2025, with revenue likely around $38.32 billion, driven by strong AI demand and client investments. While there are concerns about future competition, short-term performance appears solid, and the market’s bullish outlook suggests potential upside, though volatility remains a risk.
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