August Nymex natural gas (NGQ25) on Thursday closed down by -0.079 (-2.26%).
Aug nat-gas prices on Thursday fell after the weekly EIA report showed that nat-gas inventories rose by +55 bcf, which was a bigger increase than expectations of +49 bcf although lower than the 5-year average of +61 bcf. The report indicated that inventories were plentiful, 6.2% above the 5-year average.
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Natural gas prices received support from a warmer shift in temperatures in the Midwest and expectations for above-normal temperatures in the West for July 8-12, according to Vaisala. Also, temperature forecasts shifted warmer for the eastern half of the US for July 13-17.
Lower-48 state dry gas production on Thursday was 107.4 bcf/day (+3.3% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Thursday was 74.0 bcf/day (-5.4% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Thursday were 15.0 bcf/day (+0.2% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended June 28 rose +3.2% y/y to 99,357 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending June 28 rose +2.5% y/y to 4,246,983 GWh.
Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended June 27 rose +55 bcf, above the consensus of +49 bcf but below the 5-year average for the week of +61 bcf. As of June 27, nat-gas inventories were down -5.8% y/y, but were +6.2% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of June 30, gas storage in Europe was 59% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 68% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported Thursday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending July 4 fell by -1 to 108 rigs, slightly below the 15-month high of 114 rigs posted on June 6. In the past nine months, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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