Tuesday, March 31st, 2026
It’s the final trading day of a dismal month of March and Q1 overall — it was shaping up to be the worst trading month in four years, but it fought back valiantly today. The Dow gained +1125 points, +2.49%, the S&P 500 was +104 points, +2.91%, and the Nasdaq a whopping +795 points, +3.83%. The small-cap Russell 2000 was +82, +3.40%.
We should also be realistic here, and not fully forget the ebb-and-flow directly related to Iran War policies, which kick the stock market into gear when President Trump calls for an end to the conflict, but much less so when he says the opposite. Then again, buying in ahead of the new quarter does display some innate hopefulness that the crisis does get resolved sooner than later.
Economic Prints from Today: JOLTS, Chicago Biz & More
We got a slew of post-open data this morning, collecting a decent range — if not outsized importance — of economic figures that may have added a dollop of positivity inn the markets today, as well. But these reports tend not to move the needle all too much.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February reached expectations almost exactly, at 6.88 million openings (6.92 million projected) for the month. This is down from the upwardly revised 7.2 million from the previous month. All four regions saw job openings recede, led by -160K in the South and -110K in the Northeast. Both Quits and Layoffs remained at subdued levels.
The Chicago Business Barometer for March came down, as analysts had expected, but by a deeper cut: 52.8 versus 55.1 estimated. This follows a 12-month high at 57.7 for February. It’s the first month in four that didn’t take the barometer, but remains comfortably above the 50-level, which indicates growth. Prices paid increased to their highest rate since December.
Consumer Confidence for March, however, surprised to the upside: 91.8, well above the 87.5 estimated and the slightly downwardly revised 91.0 in February. “…[A] modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,” the CEO of The Conference Board was quoted as saying.
Earnings After the Bell: NIKE & RH
NIKE NKE, which has only missed on earnings estimates once in the past five years, beat expectations again after today’s close. Earnings of +$0.35 per share outpaced the +$0.29 analysts were looking for, on $11.28 billion in revenues, which surpassed the $11.23 billion in the Zacks consensus. Business in China outperformed to $1.62 billion, from the $1.50 billion expected.
RH RH, formerly Restoration Hardware, missed estimates after Tuesday’s close, with earnings of $1.53 per share well shy of the $2.21 expected in the Zacks consensus. Revenues of $843 million were shy of the $872.4 million analysts had been seeking. Further, revenue guidance for the current quarter (Q1) has been brought down considerably, to a range of +4-8%. Shares are trading down another -17% in late market activity, following -22% losses year to date.
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