Moderna MRNA is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 1, before the opening bell. The company’s earnings beat estimates by 18.85% in the last reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is pegged at $223.5 million, while that for earnings is pinned at a loss of $2.29 per share. Both metrics indicate improvement over the year-ago period.
Factors Likely to Shape Moderna’s Upcoming Results
Moderna is likely to have reported product sales in the quarter from three marketed products — two COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax and mNexspike) and an RSV vaccine (mResvia). A significant portion of product sales is expected to have come from the COVID-19 vaccines.
We expect minimal product sales of the company's RSV vaccine, mResvia. This softer outlook is likely due to stiff competition and the strong foothold of the competing RSV vaccines marketed by GSK and Pfizer.
Earlier this month, Moderna secured approval in the EU for mCombriax (mRNA-1083), the first combination vaccine for active immunization against COVID-19 and influenza. This marks the fourth marketed product in the company’s portfolio. Investors will likely seek updates on commercialization plans for this vaccine, as well as Moderna’s timeline for FDA resubmission.
The initial filing for mCombriax was voluntarily withdrawn last year after the agency requested additional efficacy data for the flu component. This issue was addressed with positive late-stage data announced in June 2025, where the company’s standalone flu shot, mRNA-1010, demonstrated superior efficacy compared with GSK’s approved influenza vaccine. mCombriax integrates mNexspike with mRNA-1010.
Moderna is developing more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates across different stages of clinical studies, targeting various indications, including cancer. Investors will likely focus on updates surrounding pipeline development.
An important candidate in Moderna’s pipeline is intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy, which is being developed in collaboration with Merck MRK. The companies are already evaluating this therapy in three pivotal phase III studies — one in melanoma and two in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Moderna and Merck are also studying the therapy across various mid-stage studies for other cancer indications, such as bladder cancer and renal carcinoma. Investors will likely seek updates from management on the progress of this MRK-partnered therapy.
MRNA’s Earnings Surprise History
The firm’s performance has been impressive over the past four quarters. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 34.40%.
Moderna, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Moderna, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Moderna, Inc. Quote
Moderna’s Stock Movement
Year to date, Moderna’sshares have rallied 65% againstthe industry’s 1% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts for MRNA
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Moderna this time around. The combinationofa positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Moderna has an Earnings ESP of -25.75%. The Most Accurate Estimate stands at a loss of $2.87 per share, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of $2.29.
Zacks Rank: MRNA currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks With the Favorable Combinations
Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Agenus AGEN has an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.
Shares of AGEN have risen 30% year to date. The company’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, while missing the mark on the other two occasions. Agenus delivered an average surprise of 31.42%.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals INO has an Earnings ESP of +3.33% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Shares of INO have lost 33% year to date. The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 57.94%.
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.
Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpMerck & Co., Inc. (MRK) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Agenus Inc. (AGEN) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INO) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
