It’s already been an action-packed week in the market, with news surrounding DeepSeek spooking many investors in the beloved AI trade. And this week’s reporting docket will be sure to keep the story alive, particularly when considering we’ll hear from OpenAI partner Microsoft MSFT.
The stock has underperformed quite notably relative to the S&P 500 over the last year, as shown below.
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Let’s take a deeper dive into the DeepSeek development and expectations for Microsoft’s quarterly release.
What is DeepSeek?
DeepSeek is a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that develops open-source large language models (LLM). It recently introduced its R1 model, which rivals leading AI systems like OpenAI's ChatGPT but was developed at a fraction of the cost.
The implications here are quite significant, challenging the perceived dominance of U.S. AI and suggesting that high-cost infrastructure investments may not be as lucrative as previously thought. This explains the deep sell-off we saw in many names, including beloved NVIDIA NVDA and Microsoft.
The implications for NVIDIA are that they may sell fewer AI-related chips given a cheaper approach that’s emerged, whereas the implications for Microsoft and other tech giants remain within their respective CapEx outlooks.
Nonetheless, as polarizing as the news may be, it’ll be crucial to wait and see how the development unfolds in the coming weeks. It’ll undoubtedly take some time for the market to absorb the shockwave, and investors should wait on official statements from these tech titans before drawing any hard conclusions just yet.
Keep in mind that NVIDIA is a late reporter in the earnings cycle, with its results expected near the end of February.
Microsoft CapEx in Focus
Analysts have been slightly bearish for MSFT’s release, with the $3.12 Zacks Consensus EPS estimate down 1.3% over the last several months and suggesting 7% year-over-year growth. Revenue revisions have remained stagnant over the same period, with the company expected to see 11% YoY sales growth.
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Valuation multiples are a tad rich relative to the general market heading into the release, with the current 31.2X forward 12-month earnings multiple sitting above the five-year median and reflecting a 40% premium relative to the S&P 500.
The current PEG ratio works out to 2.2X, primarily in line with the five-year median and reflecting a 20% premium relative to the S&P 500.
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Still, the primary focus of the release will undoubtedly be MSFT’s commentary surrounding CapEx, as mentioned above. The company has forecasted $84 billion in CapEx for its current fiscal year, perhaps subject to change given the DeepSeek development.
Bottom Line
While the DeepSeek news has rattled beloved stocks like NVIDIA NVDA and Microsoft MSFT, it remains all too early to draw any hard conclusions about the future impact until we hear from the companies themselves.
Fortunately, the DeepSeek news came at a great time for investors, considering that we have many of the players deeply involved in the AI trade reporting this week. By the time we hear from NVIDIA near the end of February, we’ll likely have a much stronger grasp on the situation overall.
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