Market activity was so healthy today, you’d think it was still 2023! After taking the air out of valuations across the board over the past week of trading, market participants saw fit to run a bit higher ahead of Q4 earnings season, which unofficially gets underway later this week. The Dow gained +216 points on the day, +0.58%, while the S&P 500 grew +66 points, +1.41%. The Nasdaq, boosted by a new graphics chips announcement from NVIDIA NVDA, beat the field, +319 points, +2.20%. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose +1.94%.
NVIDIA shares closed at session highs today, +6.4%, following an unveiling of three new AI-focused chips for desktop graphics, in what’s being called an “AI for Home” offering. The leader of last year’s Magnificent Seven stocks now trades at new all-time highs. In fact, all AI-related semiconductor stocks were up today after softening during trading last week. For NVIDIA, these new chips won’t post a meaningful new revenue stream as compared to, say, Data Center sales, which now comprise roughly 80% on NVIDIA’s business.
As far as the run-up ahead of Q4 earnings, there may be some question how much higher the market wants to push overall multiples. NVIDIA’s growth is all well and good — and makes sense, even at these high P/E levels — but JPMorgan JPM, which reports ahead of the bell Friday morning, is already trading +25% since this time last year. This is not to say it, as well as the other big banks reporting that day, won’t be meeting or beating estimates — they very well may. But a lot of the good news for giant banks like these already look somewhat priced in for the quarter about to report.
Fed members will be making spot appearances throughout the week, as will additional inflation prints like CPI and PPI for December. None of this is expect to make a dent in the Fed’s dot-plot blueprint of a hold at interest rates in the 5.25-5.50% range a few weeks from now. There is always a chance we could see a surprise move up or down on any of the more important economic metrics, but unless they gather consensus among other data points, we don’t expect to see the Fed move quickly on cutting rates.
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