Monday, April 7, 2025
Despite a wildly volatile opening for today’s trading session — where we saw a 2500-point move from negative to positive on the Dow in the first hour of trading — we had a relatively tame session, especially compared to the hair-on-fire selloff in the latter part of last week. The Dow shed another -349 points, -0.91% and the S&P 500 was -11 points, -0.23%. The Nasdaq narrowly closed in the green: +15 points, +0.10%, while the small-cap Russell finished -16 points, -0.92%.
Market participants began to see some dialogue on the tariff beat, with certain countries willing to state publicly they are ready to negotiate trade levels with the U.S. But for President Trump’s part, he expressed no willingness to bring down his tariff policy — in fact, he threatened China with another +50% tariff if they do not take off their retaliatory +34% tariff announced late last week.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs’ GS note earlier today was called “Countdown to Recession” — with a base case scenario of a U.S. recession as long as tariff policies remain intact. BlackRock BLK CEO Larry Fink struck a more bullish tone this morning, suggesting it might be a good time to look for buying opportunities. That said, he told investors to prepare for the Fed perhaps not cutting interest rates at all this year, and that many of his contemporaries believe we are already in a re cession right now.
Basically, if tariffs lead to higher unit prices and trade destabilization leads to shuttering companies and plants, which brings unemployment levels out of healthy-labor-market territory they’ve been in for the past several years, this could lead to “stagflation,” which is in some ways the worst of both worlds. Bond yields rose roughly 20 basis points (bps) through the course of the day, with the 10-year now back above +4.2% and the 2-year around +3.92%.
What to Expect from the Market Tomorrow
Early Tuesday morning, a new NFIB optimism index for March comes out. Essentially, we’re still looking backwards at this data, but the prior month spent its fourth-straight month above 100 (100.7), even though each of the last two months was subsequently lower that the prior month. Even if this survey does dip below 100, we don’t expect it to reach October’s low 93.7 — that’s more likely an April ’25 number.
Q1 earnings season isn’t really recognized as putting out Q1 data until Delta DAL reports Wednesday and the big Wall Street banks like JPMorgan JPM release numbers Friday morning, but tomorrow CalMaine Foods CALM — a major supplier of shell eggs — reports results after the closing bell. Currently, CalMaine is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and was names today’s Bull of the Day.
Check out the updated Zacks Earnings Calendar here.
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
This top pick is among the most innovative financial firms. With a fast-growing customer base (already 50+ million) and a diverse set of cutting edge solutions, this stock is poised for big gains. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.
Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
BlackRock (BLK) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
