Tuesday, March 24, 2025
Markets were higher today for three of the four major indexes, marking three-straight up-days for both the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Momentum stocks have bounced, particularly in spots: Tesla TSLA, for instance, is +28% over the past week of trading, and up another +3.3% today (though still -29% year to date). Elsewhere, a notable stabilization among Mag-7 and other market leaders have helped turn the tide.
The Dow was flat: +0.01%, while the S&P 500 was +0.16%. The Nasdaq outpaced the field for the day: +83 points, +0.46%. Only the small-cap Russell 2000 put up negative headlines today: -14 points, -0.66%. Bond yields took a little off the top today: +4.31% on the 10-year and +4.01% on the 2-year.
Consumer Confidence Falls -7.75% Month over Month
The Conference Board released its March report on Consumer Confidence earlier today, with 92.9 on the headline slipping below the 95.0 expected and -7.75% below the upwardly revised 100.1 for the previous month. This marks the fourth-straight down month for this survey, with older consumers more likely to see the dark clouds than younger consumers.
A senior economist at the Conference Board mentioned Consumer Confidence has fallen below its 2+ year range, while the Expectations Index fell -9.6 points to its lowest level in 12 years, to 65.2. We see some evidence of this in big down-moves at specialty retailers year to date, such as Abercrombie & Fitch ANF -48% and Victoria’s Secret VSCO -50%.
New Home Sales In-Line with Expectations
Also during the regular trading session, New Home Sales for February came out. A headline of 676K was only incrementally behind the 677K estimate, and both up notably from the upwardly revised 664K for January. These numbers followed Case-Shiller Home Prices ahead of today’s open, which also demonstrated tame but positive growth. That said, the Case-Shiller data is from a month in arrears, so it will be another month to see if its housing numbers match those from other housing numbers.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Tomorrow
Ahead of tomorrow’s open, we’ll see new Durable Goods Orders for February, again expected to cool month over month. Ex-transportation goods orders were 0.0% a month ago. We’ll also hear from Fed Presidents Kashkari (Minneapolis) and St Louis (Alberto Musalem). Also, Dollar Tree DLTR announces earnings results ahead of the opening bell.
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