Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

lots of eyes on the IPO market after ARM last week...will activity pick up now that monetary policy has mostly normalized?

"IPO market is set to re-open in the coming weeks...a more normalized IPO backdrop going forward" -Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

monetary tightening has caused

the IPO market to be quiet the last 20 months

rise in TYields (monetary tightening) have dampened performance also

as per Goldman the macro environment has improved for a more normalized IPO backdrop

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

This Week: Fed Rate Decision

| "we expect that the Fed will leave policy rates unchanged, with the futures market pricing in a less than 5% probability of a hike."

-JP Morgan Asset Management

focus on economic outlook and future rate paths...

* source: JP Morgan Asset Management

Higher for longer but cuts in 24...

* source: Oxford Economics

| Utilities = big winner last week...still the worst performing sector YTD.

"So far this year, typical recovery (Financials) and recessionary (Utilities) sectors both are underperforming. This year has been all about owning quality growth stocks, most famously represented by the Magnificent 7 sectors (Comm Services, Tech and Discretionary).." -Piper Sandler

| "The Magnificent 7 have really made it a tale of two markets this year pushing their respective sectors and indices higher. Additionally,
they are a big driver behind the expectation for a recovery in earnings. S&P 500 Earnings growth NTM recently turned positive, thanks
to the Magnificent 7. Without these 7 companies, expected S&P earnings growth would still be negative." -Piper Sandler

* source: Piper Sandler

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities LOWER Oil + TYields HIGHER

| big week for central banks...Fed + BoJ + BoE + Norges + SNB

| UAW strike against automakers = 3rd day, no resolution

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

DJ -0.0% S&P500 -0.1% Nasdaq -0.1% R2K -0.4% Cdn TSX -0.1%

Stoxx Europe 600 -1.0% APAC stocks MIXED, 10YR TYield = 4.329%

Dollar LOWER, Gold $1,925, WTI +1%, $92; Brent +1%, $94, Bitcoin $27,262

2) FOMC meeting highlight of the week

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

3) The state of US consumer: sentiment remains weak but off its 2022 lows

"Consumers were more downbeat about the economy at the start of September, as they downgraded their assessment of current economic conditions while becoming slightly more optimistic about the outlook. Consumers viewed the labor market less favorably, and were more negative about buying conditions for autos, homes and major household goods." -Oxford Economics

will inflation remain sticky at a moderate level?

* source: Oxford Economics

4) interest rates may seem elevated but real rates (inflation adjusted) are in-line with LT average.

monetary policy has mean reverted. The last 15 or so years we have been in an unusual easy monetary environment

* source: BofA's Savita

monetary easing created bloated balance sheets

how and when will this reverse?

* source: Deutsche Bank

5) Looking back 150 years, recessions have become less common and expansions longer...

* source: Deutsche Bank

6) Weekly Performance

* source: Factset, prepared by Gavin Zaentz

* source: Piper Sandler

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

House GOP Doubles Down on Anti-ESG Messaging With New Measures - BBG

-The Education and Workforce Committee passed four measures Thursday along party lines that together would generally attempt to restrict—but not prohibit—investment advisers and financial institutions from considering ESG factors in retirement-investment advice. The move follows a month-long effort by Financial Services Committee Republicans in July to pass a series of similar bills aimed at attacking the once-esoteric Wall Street investing strategy.

California sues oil giants alleging ‘climate risks deception’: Report - Aljazeera

-The US state of California has sued five oil giants for their alleged role in downplaying the risk posed by fossil fuels while causing tens of billions of dollars in damage. The lawsuit, filed on Friday in the superior court of San Francisco, targeted Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips and Chevron.

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Economists expect Fed to defy investors with more interest rate rises-FT
• ECB’s Holzmann says latest interest rate hike might not be last-BBG
• ECB’s Stournaras urges governments to help bring down inflation-BBG
• Bank of England readies what may be its final rate hike-RTRS
• UAW strike against automakers enters third day, no resolution seen-RTRS
• UAW Chief Fain rejects 21% pay increase offer as a ‘no-go’-BBG
• Morgan Stanley’s Wilson says clients see tough 2024 for stocks-BBG
• Hedge funds just turned bullish on dollar before key Fed meeting-BBG
• China's top developers lost close to $3bn due to weakened yuan-NIKKEI
• IMF to urge China to shift growth model towards consumption-RTRS
• Chinese shadow bank exposed to troubled property developers-FT
• Evergrande shares tumble 25% after wealth management staff detained-RTRS
• China's Country Garden faces another dollar coupon deadline-RTRS
• House GOP groups reach deal on stopgap government funding bill-AXIOS
• Biden aide held hours of 'constructive' talks with Chinese diplomat-RTRS
• Europe must cut down on its dependence with China, Baerbock says-BBG
• FDA ap­proves GSK's JAK in­hibitor for rare blood can­cer-ENDPTS
• China sanctions Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin for arms sales-RTRS
• Rio Tinto’s stealth moves in WA lithium grab-AFR
• All3Media owners kick off sale process, sources say-RTRS
• Exclusive: Advent explores sale of car insurance software vendor CCC-RTRS
• Monday raid: Petra buys up big stake in Red 5 for mystery client-AFR
• Waterstones backer Elliott among suitors for The Body Shop-SKY

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Chevron's strike-hit Australia LNG facility resumes full production-RTRS 2) China stored huge volumes of crude oil in August, giving it options-RTRS 3) California sues oil giants for downplaying risks posed by fossil fuels-RTRS