Pre-market indexes are up again this morning, though all week this has been the case. Only yesterday did most major indexes carry these gains into the closing bell; the other days, they lost momentum. Also, we’re seeing a downward bias over the past several minutes, though we don’t expect this has been caused by the vast array of economic data hitting the tape before the open.
Jobless Claims Mixed, Still Within Range
Weekly Jobless Claims arrived this morning, as they do nearly every Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 242K last week — the highest level since the first week of December last year, and a fairly sizable leap from the upwardly revised 220K the previous week. This brings the trailing four-month average up to 224K; the previous four-week average was 212K.
Continuing Claims, meanwhile, moved down from 1.867 million previously to 1.862 million two weeks ago (longer-term claims are reported a week in arrears from new claims). This marks the fifth-straight week below 1.9 million continuing claims, and roughly in the middle of every week’s worth of longer-term jobless claims going back to last spring.
It’s unclear the total amount of layoffs at the federal government and aggressive policy toward removing undocumented immigrants in this country are having on these weekly jobless totals. We’ll keep an eye on this, however: if we start seeing these figures tick up on both new and longer-term claims, we may be putting the low 1.77 million prints from April of last year in the rear view mirror for the time being.
Q4 GDP In-Line at +2.3%
As expected, the second read on Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached +2.3% this morning, in-line with the first go-around. This remains the weakest level since the +1.6% recorded for Q1 2024. The previous two quarters gained +3.1% and +3.0%. Should this print hold for the third read, we’ll have overall GDP growth of +2.5% for 2024.
Personal Consumption also reiterated the earlier report, at +4.2% for the quarter. This remains the best level since Q1 of 2023. However, the Price Index jumped 200 basis points (bps), from +2.2% to +4.2% — a clear sign of inflation in the market, and the highest number we’ve since Q3 ’22. Quarter over quarter, prices rose 20 bps, from +2.5% to +2.7%.
Durable Goods Jump to +3.1%
The January print for Durable Goods Orders swung to a positive read, as expected, but at +3.1% — higher than the +2.0% analysts had been expecting. The previous month’s adjustment came up from -2.2% originally reported to -1.8% this morning. It’s the best performance since July ’24’s big jump to +9.8%, and only the third positive read since then.
Ex-transportation tells the story: 0.0%. Preliminary non-Defense, ex-aircraft (a proxy for “normal” business spending) came in at +0.8% — half a percentage point higher than the +0.3% expected. Shipments — also a preliminary read, meaning subject to future changes — reached -0.3%. This is the worst print since July ’24.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
Pre-market slippage among major indexes appears to have been the result of an early morning announcement from President Trump that planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be forthcoming next week. Of course, that’s still a few days off, so anything can happen between now and then, but Dow futures are now -31 points in the red. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still positive for the moment: +21 points and +149 points, respectively.
Pending Home Sales for January come out after today’s open, expected to improve to -1.0% from -5.5% posted a month ago. Yesterday, New Home Sales surprised to the downside, falling -10.5% month over month. Bond yields remain subdued at this hour: +4.294% on the 10-year and +4.102% on the 2-year.
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