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Is A 30% Fall In New Relic's Stock A Buying Opportunity?

New Relic’s stock (NYSE: NEWR) declined by 30% in the last twenty-one trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 index fell by 4% over the same period. New Relic develops cloud-based software to help website and application owners track the performances of their services. The company saw its stock fall deeply after Q3 FY 2022 earnings (ended December 2021). Now, is NEWR stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last seven years, there is a 79% chance of a rise in NEWR stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on New Relic’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: NEWR -33%, vs. S&P500 -1.1%; Underperformed market

(<1% event probability)

  • New Relic’s stock declined 33% over a five day trading period, compared to the broader market (S&P500) fall of 1.1%
  • A change of -33% or more over five trading days has less than 1% event probability, which has occurred 2 times out of 1800 in the last seven years

Ten Days: NEWR -31%, vs. S&P500 -1.5%; Underperformed market

(<1% event probability)

  • New Relic’s stock declined 31% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) fall of 1.5%
  • A change of -31% or more over ten trading days has less than 1% event probability, which has occurred 14 times out of 1795 in the last seven years

Twenty-One Days: NEWR -30%, vs. S&P500 -4%; Underperformed market

(2% event probability)

  • New Relic’s stock declined 30% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) fall of 4%
  • A change of -30% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 2% event probability, which has occurred 33 times out of 1784 in the last seven years

Check out how New Relic Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Feb 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 NEWR Return -30% -34% 159%
 S&P 500 Return -1% -6% 97%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 3% -7% 265%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/16/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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