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Tariffs, Turbulence, and Turnaround: Navigating Q2'25 Market Dynamics

This article is brought to you by the Nasdaq Capital Markets Advisory Group, which supports corporate issuers through equity surveillance, global perception, and investor engagement services. These offerings provide real-time intelligence on asset flow dynamics, help corporates understand the voice of their shareholders, and enable more strategic capital attraction.

The market commentary below reflects aggregated insights from Nasdaq’s Global Perception and Equity Surveillance teams, offering a holistic view of how institutional investors are interpreting current market conditions, including macroeconomic headwinds, tariff impacts, and evolving capital deployment strategies.

2Q’25 began with eager investors looking to protect profits, as stocks fell sharply in early April following President Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs. As nervous investors dictated the direction of the market during the week following the announcement — with many of the major indices falling to levels more than 20% below their earlier highs — President Trump pivoted by placing a 90-day pause on his initial plan. Investors quickly regained confidence, fueling an impressive recovery in stocks. The rally moved higher throughout May and June, as data showed that economic growth, inflation and corporate earnings all remained healthy, despite the uncertainty surrounding trade.

Below is a look at broader market dynamics from our Global Perception and Equity Surveillance teams looking at capital preferences from corporate issuers and sector outlooks from some of the largest Mutual Funds in the Americas. The tone has notably improved with PM’s warming up to the notion that the markets will be able to handle the proposed tariffs with confidence. However, institutional investors continue to encourage corporate issuers to be prudent with their capital priorities. The sector flows varied widely from one investor to another as PM’s looked to find the most compelling stocks in a very dynamic market.

Market Commentary From Nasdaq Global Perception

YoY Capital Preferences Sentiment
Source: Nasdaq Global Capital Markets Advisory

Corporates Encouraged to Brace for Macro Headwinds Amidst Complex Market Dynamics

Investors are voicing concerns regarding the current macroeconomic environment, persistently elevated interest rates, and the effects of tariffs. Collectively, these factors are perceived as hindering corporate issuers’ capacity for effective planning and forecasting, while also affecting their respective end-markets.

The investment community expects a degree of revenue and margin compression through 2025 driven by tariff related cost increases and weaker consumer demand. In the current environment, institutional investors are strongly encouraging and advising corporate issuers to adopt a more conservative capital deployment strategy that reinforces ROIC profiles and balance sheet flexibility.

YoY Change

The graph above presents aggregated and anonymized insights from the investment community regarding capital deployment priorities for corporates in 2025.

During the first half of 2025, investors and analysts demonstrate a preference for increased emphasis on organic growth and debt reduction. They encourage corporates to preserve flexibility and maintain a balanced approach, especially as M&A and growth initiatives encounter greater headwinds from weakening underlying markets.

Quotes

“There is a lot of macroeconomic uncertainty that [Corporates] are dealing with right now, particularly around tariffs and how that impacts margins and how the deteriorating economic environment potentially might impact their ability to acquire customers” – Sell-Side Analyst, Regional Investment Bank [Anonymous Sell-Side Analyst I]

“If the implementation of tariffs and a slowing economy ends up leading to a recession, then that would probably have a notable negative impact on their business” Anonymous U.S. Institutional Investor, Portfolio Manager

“I would say, between the tariffs and inflation and interest rates. [Corporates] don't necessarily have a tailwind to drive the top-line. That’s concerning to me. $100B US Investment Advisor, Portfolio Manager

“The macro environment is highly uncertain, and trade policy is uncertain, exposure [to] various countries is unclear and not well disclosed. We have challenges in trying to frame the tariff environment” - Anonymous Sell-Side Analyst II

Columbia Disciplined Core Fund

As fewer stocks drove market gains in Q3’25 compared to Q2’25, growth stocks outperformed value stocks by significant margins. Adjusting to current market conditions, the fund employs a multifactor strategy—quality, value, and catalyst themes—aimed at identifying companies with strong supply chain flexibility, pricing power, and operational efficiencies which enable companies to perform through tariff uncertainties while maintaining strong margins and generating cash flow. The fund emphasizes that its strategy is grounded in quantitative stock selection rather than macro predictions.

2Q’25 Commentary: https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/binaries/content/assets/cti/public/columbia-disciplined-core-fund-quarterly-commentary.pdf

Top Buys: Johnson Controls, Visa, Target

Top Sales: JPMorgan, Caterpillar, General Mills

Technology - Columbia Disciplined Core Fund
Source: Nasdaq Global Capital Markets Advisory

ClearBridge Large Cap Growth Fund

The fund’s IT underweight and broader sector allocations reflect a focus on managing concentration and industry risk while maintaining a diversified set of growth drivers. Performance in Q2’25 showed that the fund may lag in certain market conditions, but its approach remains firmly rooted in fundamental stock selection. Management remains confident in this strategy, continuing to seek value in differentiated and well-positioned companies.

2Q’25 Commentary: https://www.franklintempleton.com/forms-literature/download/90132-QC

Top Buys: Broadcom, Airbus, Linde

Top Sales: Taiwan Semiconductor, Target, Zoetis

Basic Materials - ClearBridge
Source: Nasdaq Global Capital Markets Advisory

Fidelity Contrafund

Since the inception of Q2’25, the global economy continued to expand, showing signs of resilience with near-term growth prospects appearing favorable. However, policy uncertainty—particularly around tariffs—remains elevated. The fund highlights that such uncertainty has historically coincided with increased market volatility.

2Q’25 Commentary: https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/analysis/316071109?documentType=QFR

Top Buys: Coca-Cola Co, T-Mobile US Inc, Capital One Financial Corp

Top Sales: Unitedhealth Group Inc, Alphabet Inc, Apple Inc

Consumer Non-Cyclicals - Fidelity
Source: Nasdaq Global Capital Markets Advisory

Fidelity Growth Company Fund

The fund invests in companies with above-benchmark, long-term growth in sales and earnings, expecting these trends to persist. Positioning changes in Q2’25 were modest, though the June benchmark rebalance shifted sector weightings. While exposure to Information Technology was slightly increased, the sector ended Q2 as a modest underweight but still represented the fund’s largest allocation at 49% of assets.

2Q’25 Commentary: https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/analysis/316200104?documentType=QFR

Top Buys: Microsoft Corp, SanDisk Corp, Roblox Corp

Top Sales: Salesforce Inc, Skechers USA Inc, Alphabet Inc

Healthcare - Fidelity Growth Company Fund
Source: Nasdaq Global Capital Markets Advisory

Fidelity Magellan Fund

The fund allocates a sizable portion of assets to growth companies with sound financial positions, emphasizing quality, growth, momentum, and free cash flow. By retaining its past strategy, the fund underscores its effectiveness across multiple market and economic cycles.

2Q’25 Commentary: https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/analysis/316184100?documentType=QFR

Top Buys: ServiceNow Inc, Progressive Corp, CME Group Inc

Top Sales: Eli Lilly and Co, Oracle Corp, KLA Corp

Financials - Fidelity Magellan Fund
Source: Nasdaq Global Capital Markets Advisory

JPMorgan Equity Income Fund

The fund believes in a cautiously optimistic outlook for U.S. equities, supported by potential Fed rate cuts and ongoing trade negotiations. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and shifting fiscal policies may increase volatility. Its strategy remains focused on high-conviction stocks and exploiting market dislocations for attractive opportunities.

2Q’25 Commentary: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/americas/us/en/literature/commentary/FC-EINC.PDF

Top Buys: Fidelity National Information Services Inc, 3M Co, American Tower Corp

Top Sales: Truist Financial Corp, Abbvie Inc, Medtronic PLC

Technology - JPMorgan Equity
Source: Nasdaq Global Capital Markets Advisory

JPMorgan U.S. Equity Fund

The fund holds a cautiously optimistic view of U.S. equities, with support from potential Fed rate cuts and trade negotiations. Nonetheless, geopolitical tensions and shifting fiscal policy remain potential sources of volatility.

2Q’25 Commentary: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/americas/us/en/literature/commentary/FC-USE.PDF

Top Buys: Walt Disney Co, United Rentals Inc, Blackstone Inc

Top Sales: Unitedhealth Group Inc, Meta Platforms Inc, Broadcom Inc

 

Consumer Cyclicals - JPMorgan US Equity
Source: Nasdaq Global Capital Markets Advisory

Dodge and Cox Stock Fund

The fund maintains a disciplined, valuation-driven approach even during volatile markets. In Q2’25, it increased investments in Health Care while paring back specific holdings in Financials, consistent with actions begun in early 2024. The fund’s position is overweight in areas such as Health Care, Communication Services, and Industrials, while underweight in Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary. The Fund is overweight Health Care, Communication Services, and Industrials, and underweight Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary.

2Q’25 Commentary: https://www.dodgeandcox.com/content/dam/dc/us/en/pdf/investment commentary/Dodge_Cox_Stock_Fund_Investment_Commentary.pdf

Top Buys: Unitedhealth Group Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, LPL Financial Holdings Inc

Top Sales: Williams Companies Inc, Cisco Systems Inc, General Electric Co

Healthcare - Dodge and Cox
Source: Nasdaq Global Capital Markets Advisory

Harris Oakmark Fund

The fund emphasizes periodic portfolio rebalancing rather than market timing. It maintains target weightings to increase U.S. and international exposure while using volatility as an opportunity to trim outperformers and add undervalued assets. This disciplined approach prevents overexposure to expensive stocks and builds positions during periods of weakness, helping reduce counterproductive investment decisions driven by behavioral biases.

2Q’25 Commentary: https://oakmark.com/news-insights/our-bottom-up-approach-to-a-top-down-crisis-u-s-equity-market-commentary-2q-2025/

Top Buys: Alphabet, Conocophillips, Willis Towers

Top Sales: Deere, Korger, Kenvue

Putnam Large Cap Growth Fund

The fund expects companies outside the “Magnificent 7” to show stronger growth than in prior years, while earnings for the largest tech names may slow. This shift could broaden market leadership, though the fund remains cautious about its extent. Over the next five years, it sees innovation arising from traditional growth sectors such as Information Technology, Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials.

2Q’25 Commentary: https://www.franklintempleton.com/forms-literature/download/38964-QC

Top Buys: Alphabet, Conocophillips, Willis Towers

Top Sales: Deere, Korger, Kenvue

Info Tech - Putnam Large Cap
Source: Nasdaq Global Capital Markets Advisory

Ella Radoncic

Team Leader- Technology, Media, Telecom
Capital Access Platforms

Shehryar Khokhar

Team Leader- Global Perception- Americas
Capital Access Platforms

Natasha Stojanova

Senior Analyst- Global Perception  
Capital Access Platforms

David Weild

Analyst Technology, Media, Telecom
Capital Access Platforms

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