Invitation Homes INVH is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, after market close. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display a year-over-year increase in revenues and no change in funds from operations (FFO) per share.
In the last reported quarter, this residential real estate investment trust (REIT) posted a core FFO per share of 48 cents, meeting the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results reflected higher same-store net operating income (NOI) and same-store blended rent. However, lower occupancy marred the performance to an extent.
Over the preceding four quarters, INVH’s core FFO per share met the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice and surpassed it in the remaining period, with the average beat being 0.53%. The graph below depicts this surprise history:
Invitation Home Price and EPS Surprise
Invitation Home price-eps-surprise | Invitation Home Quote
In this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. apartment market environment and the company's fundamentals and analyze the factors that may have contributed to its first-quarter 2026 performance.
US Apartment Market in Q1
The U.S. apartment market entered 2026 in better shape than many investors feared, though not yet in a clean pricing recovery. RealPage reported that first-quarter demand rebounded, with absorption of nearly 93,300 units, making it one of the strongest first quarters of the past decade. The snapback helped reverse the late-2025 move-out weakness, but annual demand still ran only a little above 303,000 units, below the roughly 340,000-unit decade average.
The good news is that the new supply is finally rolling over. Roughly 367,000 units were completed in the year-ending first quarter of 2026, including about 75,200 units in the quarter itself. This is still elevated in absolute terms, but it is a major comedown from the late-2024 peak of more than 589,000 unit annual deliveries and now sits near the 10-year average annual completion volume.
National occupancy stood at 94.9% in the first quarter of 2026, up 10 basis points sequentially but 20 basis points below the prior year. Rents rose 0.4% in the quarter after two consecutive quarterly declines but remained down 0.5% year over year. Concessions continue to do much of the heavy lifting: 25.5% of apartments were offering concessions, with the average incentive at 7.2%.
The weakest rent trends remain in high-supply Sun Belt markets. Austin, Denver and Phoenix posted some of the deepest annual rent cuts, while San Antonio, TX, Tampa, FL, Nashville, TN, and Las Vegas also lost momentum. In contrast, San Francisco, San Jose, CA, and New York showed rent growth, helped by easing supply pressure and better demand. Several Midwest markets, including Chicago, St. Louis and Cleveland, also posted steady gains because new supply has been more limited.
Factors at Play and Projections for Invitation Homes
In this environment, Invitation Homes’ performance is likely to have benefited from improving rental demand, supported by a rebound in absorption and steady occupancy levels. Affordability challenges in homeownership and limited large-unit apartment supply continue to drive demand for single-family rentals, aiding leasing and renewals.
The company’s diversified portfolio in high-growth markets and strong renewal mix are likely to have supported stable revenues, while operational efficiencies and technology initiatives may have aided NOI growth.
For the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for INVH’s rental revenues currently stands at $668.2 million, up from $585.2 million reported in the prior-year period. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter total revenues is pegged at $689.4 million, indicating a rise of 2.2% from the year-ago reported number.
However, elevated supply and increased concessions in key Sun Belt markets are expected to have pressured new lease rates and overall rent growth.
Invitation Homes’ activities in the to-be-reported quarter were inadequate to garner analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share has remained unchanged at 48 cents over the past two months. However, the figure suggests no change year over year.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for Invitation Homes
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for INVH this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.
Invitation Homes currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are two stocks from the broader REIT sector — Ventas VTR and Cousins Properties CUZ — you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.
Ventas, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on April 27, has an Earnings ESP of +0.62% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Cousins Properties, slated to release quarterly numbers on April 29, has an Earnings ESP of +0.94% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
