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Nasdaq Markets Outlook

Inflation Warnings as Gold Continues to Climb

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

| "Q1 price winners…cocoa 133%, bitcoin 69%, Nikkei 20%, "Magnificent 7" 17%, oil 16%, SPX 10%;

Q1 losers…30-year UST-4%, Swiss franc -7%, Japan yen -7%, iron ore -20%."

-BofA's Michael Hartnett, The Flow Show

IR insight chart
IR insight chart

* source: BofA's Michael Hartnett, The Flow Show

| "As shown in the chart of the week, U.S. large-cap stocks continued their dominance, outshining other asset classes with a 10.6% return." -JPM AM

IR insight chart

* source: JPM AM

| at the index level, P/Es are starting to screen rich...overvalued by almost every measure relative to history...

"S&P 500 expensive on 19/20 metrics" -BofA's Savita

IR insight chart

* source: JPM AM

| Wall Street cheering easy money + loose financial conditions + economy not as bad as feared. Piper Sandler investor poll:

IR insight chart

* source: Piper Sandler

| inflation + geopolitical risk warning as safe haven asset rallying?

IR insight chart

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

| Last week = resurgence in smaller + less profitable stocks...and at the expense of this year’s best performers

"The tug-of-war between these two groups is at the center of the positioning debate in ’24. Many investors find themselves in either the
camp of “owning momentum and concerned it is going to reverse” or “owning small and hoping for a trend reversal”." -Piper Sandler

IR insight chart
IR insight chart

* source: Piper Sandler

| #QualityMatters | momentum trade = high quality & profitable stocks

IR insight chart

* source: Piper Sandler

| Food for thought: "…big motivation for Fed to cut rates to constrain surge in interest cost" | inflationary pressure a norm as fiscal policy expands...?

IR insight chart
IR insight chart

* source: BofA's Michael Hartnett, The Flow Show

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities MIXED | Dollar + Gold + TYields HIGHER | Oil LOWER

DJ -0.3% S&P500 +0.1% Nasdaq +0.6% R2K -0.4%

Stoxx Europe 600 CLOSED APAC stocks LOWER, 10YR TYield = 4.285%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $2,243, WTI -0%, $83; Brent -0%, $87, Bitcoin $70,028

2) Key Economic Indicators Released Last Week:

inflation still slightly elevated....

consumer sentiment has been improving

"High-end consumers are pulling up broad confidence, with stocks up 10% in 1Q, helping support consumer spending … thank the Fed’s dovish talk." -Piper Sandler

IR insight chart
IR insight chart

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

3) THIS WEEK:

busy macro calendar with Friday's jobs report the highlight

IR insight chart

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

2) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

  • Who wouldn’t like prices to start falling? Careful what you wish for-AP
  • Half a million California workers will get $20 minimum wage, starting today-NPR
  • Baltimore to open temporary shipping route around key bridge wreckage-NYT
  • Baltimore ship accident has east coast ports scrambling to absorb cargo-BBG
  • Caixin survey: China’s March factory activity most robust in 13 months-CNBC
  • Japan's Fin Min: 'speculative' moves in currency market impacting yen-RTRS
  • Iron ore swings near $100 as traders mull fragile China recovery-BBG
  • Turkey’s Erdoğan suffers blow in crucial mayoral elections-POL
  • Protesters call for Netanyahu to leave office -NYT
  • Anglo American’s embattled new boss: ‘I’m not shy. Thoughtful isn’t shy’-TIMES
  • Microsoft and OpenAI plot $100 billion Stargate AI Supercomputer-INFO
  • Formula One-owner Liberty to unveil £3.5bn takeover of MotoGP-SKY
  • Activist investor Ancora wins two board seats at Elanco-BBG
  • Wall Street enters race for Unilever ice cream float-MONEY
  • Lambastes sale process, unveils strategy if Browning West wins-BBG
  • Browning West leading the charge Gildan shareholder battle fired CEO-TGM
  • China's SAIC aims to slash jobs at GMVW ventures and EV unit-RTRS
  • Nippon Steel’s new chief says deal will only strengthen US steel-BBG
  • Huge AI funding leads to hype ‘grifting’, warns DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis-FT
  • Tesla raises prices of Model Y cars in US by $1,000-RTRS
  • Tesla China price hike meets slew of cuts from other carmakers-BBG
  • Microsoft to separate Teams and Office globally amid antitrust scrutiny-RTRS
  • Ready or not, self-driving semi-trucks are coming America’s highways-WASHPO

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Saudi Arabia may hike May crude oil prices to Asia-RTRS2) US crude output falls 6% in January due to severe cold, EIA says-RTRS 3) US oil suppliers muscling into OPEC+ markets all over the world-BBG 4) U.S. considers allowing limited oil business to continue in Venezuela-WASHPO 5) Russia plans to cut diesel export by sea in April to 5-month low-BBG 6) Zelenskiy vows drone strikes on Russia despite US dissent-BBG 7) Netanyahu, ahead of surgery, vows Israel will invade Rafah, despite pressure from Ramadan, US-FOX 8) Granholm eyes talks with Big Tech on AI power needs-AXIOS

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Massud Ghaussy, CFA

About the author

Massud Ghaussy, CFA, is part of Nasdaq's IR Insights team and delivers daily insights that empowers readers to get a sense of the important issues impacting the day's trading.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.