Key Points

• Following a very strong May when the Nasdaq-100 Index® (NDX®) returned 9%, equities remained resilient as the Nasdaq-100® rose by 6.3% in June and hit a new all-time high in a month marked by heightened geopolitical concerns.
• Nasdaq Global ex-United States™ Index (NQGXUS™) outperformed the Nasdaq U.S. Benchmark™ Index (NQUSB™) by 11.4% in the first half of 2025—the largest semi-annual delta since the second half of 2003.
• Despite ongoing macro volatility, there are tentative signs of stabilization in consumer and business confidence indicators from low levels ahead of Q2 earnings season.
• Growth as measured by the Nasdaq AlphaDEX Large Cap Growth™ (NQDXUSLCG™) Index outperformed value as measured by the Nasdaq AlphaDEX Large Cap Value™ (NQDXUSLCV™) Index by 12.2% for the quarter.  This is the largest outperformance by growth over value since the first quarter of 2020.
• Performance across Nasdaq’s suite of indexes finished higher for June with 95% of the indexes tracked in our report posting gains, and the average index was up 4.9%.

Chart of the Month

• NDX recovered all its tariff induced drawdown and is now positive year-to-date, sitting at its all-time high.
• Both developed equities (NQDMXUS) and emerging market equities (NQEM) outperformed the US on a year-to-date basis.  This was aided by a weaker USD that lost nearly 11% year-to-date.
• Year to date, gold and silver mining companies (XAU) and to a lesser extent Bitcoin (NQBTCS) had strong returns as tariffs drove investors to seek hedges against potential inflation. The weaker US Dollar also benefitted gold and Bitcoin.
• Semiconductors (SOX) continued a strong recovery in June with SOX now up more than 11% year-to-date.

Executive Summary

While the July 8^th end of the U.S.’s 90-day tariff pause still looms, the markets and world have been focused on the escalation in the Middle East. Although the situation remains precarious, equities took another leg higher in June as the Nasdaq-100 reached new all-time highs on tentative signs of a truce between Israel and Iran. At 19.6, equity volatility, as measured by the CBOE Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN), is back below its 10-year average of around 22.4. And after hitting a five-month high in mid-June amidst the spike in Middle East regional tensions, brent crude oil is off by -13.4% from its recent peak and is lower than where it was at the outset of the conflict.

Assuming that the angst around the Middle East conflict does fade further, we expect markets will also refocus on the outlook for monetary policy. The market view is that the Federal Reserve is increasingly focused on softer labor markets (e.g., four-week moving average of initial jobless claims at their highest since August 2023) and ongoing housing market concerns but is mindful of inflation remaining sticky given potential pass-through effects from tariffs. The Fed’s “dot plot” from its June 18^th meeting is still calling for two 25bp rate cuts with the markets penciling in the first one in September. Though some Fed members have come out recently in support of a rate cut in July most other recent speakers have pushed back on this. Markets are only pricing in a 19% chance of a cut at the July 30^th meeting but that is up from 10% prior to the last meeting. Treasury 10-year yields are back down to 4.23% after the recent Fed member commentary and Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress.

Pivoting to the economic fundamentals, uncertainties clearly remain, but there are tentative signs of a steadying in business and consumer confidence readings as the likes of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index have slowed what were precipitous declines—although consumer confidence remains at depressed levels. Consequently, the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index for soft data has rebounded to its highest levels since January—indicating more positive than negative surprises in sentiment surveys relative to estimates. Q2 earnings (kick off July 15^th) will be key for corporate commentary and guidance around trade policy outlooks, the impacts to businesses, and further read throughs for the U.S. consumer. Current expectations are for NDX earnings to grow by more than 22.6% year-over-year in the second quarter, which would be slightly higher than the 21.6% posted in the first quarter.

Nasdaq Indexes June 2025 Performance Recap

Among the 122 indexes tracked in this report, 116 finished June in positive territory, while 6 ended with negative returns. The best-performing index was the Nasdaq Sprott Junior Uranium Miners^TM Index (NSURNJ™), delivering a return of 17.9%.  The worst performance was from the Nasdaq Ether Settlement Price™ Index (NQETHS™) which lost –2.5% for the month. The average return across all 122 indexes for the month was +4.9%.

Nasdaq Featured Indexes

12 out of the 13 Nasdaq Featured Indexes registered positive returns in June as the market rally was widespread. The Nasdaq Innovators Completion Cap™ Index (NCX™) was the top performer, registering a return of 11.9% while the Nasdaq-100 Low Volatility™ Index (NDXLV™) was the lone Featured Index to post a negative return making it the bottom performer in the group with a loss of -1.2%. The continued strong recovery of mega cap stocks helped the Nasdaq-100 Index® (NDX®) as it was up 6.3%. The Nasdaq-100 Equal-Weighted™ Index (NDXE™) also fared well as it was up 4.9%. The Nasdaq-100 Top 30™ Index (NDX30™) rose by 6.5% and the Nasdaq-100 ex Top 30™ Index (NDX70™) returned 5.3%. Overall, this group of indexes was up by an average of 5.5%.

Nasdaq Global Indexes

Performance across the Nasdaq Global Indexes suite was strong as all 9 indexes in the group had positive returns for June. The Nasdaq US Large Cap™ Index (NQUSL™) was the best performer, rising 5.2%. The Nasdaq Global™ Index (NQGI™) was up 4.4%.  This was comprised of the Nasdaq Developed Markets™ Index (NQDM™) which rose 4.4% and the Nasdaq Emerging Markets™ Index (NQEM™) which also had a return of 4.4%. The group's lowest return index was the Nasdaq Europe™ Index (NQEU™) with a return of 2.4%. The average return for the group was 4.2%.

Nasdaq Sector-Specific Indexes

Within Nasdaq’s sector-specific indexes, the KBW Nasdaq Bank™ Index (BKX™) was the top performer, registering a positive return of 9.6% as proposed regulatory changes in reserve requirements was seen as a positive for bank profitability.  The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector™ Index (XAU™) which tracks gold & silver miners, was up 7% as spot gold price hovered near its all-time due to its role as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge; XAU is now up just under 50% YTD vs. 25.9% for spot gold and 24.9% for spot silver. The KBW Property and Casualty™ Index (KPX™) was the laggard in the group, losing -1.9%.

Nasdaq Thematic Indexes

Overall performance across the Nasdaq Thematic Tech lineup was positive with all 25 indexes in the suite recording gains, averaging 7.0%. The best performing index in the group was the Nasdaq US Smart Semiconductor™ Index (NQSSSE™) with a return of 17.1%.  The PHLX Semiconductor™ Index (SOX™) was the second-best performer in the suite with a return of 16.6%. The BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud™ Index (EMCLOUD™) was the worst performer, registering a small gain of 0.9%.

All thirteen indexes in the Nasdaq Thematic Renewables and Energy Transition Materials suite posted gains this month, with an average return of 8.0%. The best performer in the group was the Nasdaq Sprott Junior Uranium Miners™ Index (NSURNJ™) which was up 17.9%.  The ISE Clean Edge Water™ Index (HHO™) was the worst performer in June with a gain of 2.5%.

The Nasdaq Crypto Index suite had an average gain of 1.1%.  The Nasdaq Bitcoin Settlement Price™ Index (NQBTCS™) had the highest return of the group at +2.8%.  The Nasdaq Ether Settlement Price™ Index (NQETHS™) was the worst performing index, losing -2.5%.

Nasdaq Quantitative Indexes

Across the index suites comprising Nasdaq’s quantitative offerings, performance was mostly positive with 49 out of the 52 indexes seeing gains in June. The average return was 3.5%. All ten indexes in the Nasdaq Options & Other Quantitative suite saw gains, and ten out of the eleven Nasdaq Multifactor indexes were positive this month. Within the Dorsey Wright momentum suite, the Dorsey Wright Technology Tech Leaders™ Index (DWTY™) was the best performer, gaining 6.8%.  The Dorsey Wright Consumer Staples Tech Leaders™ Index (DWCS™) was the worst performing index at -1.3%.

14 out of the 15 indexes in the Nasdaq Dividend and Income suite posted gains this month, with an average return of 2.9%. The Nasdaq Technology Dividend™ Index (NQ96DIVUS™) was the top performer, posting a return of 11.1%. The worst performer in the group was the Nasdaq US Multi-Asset Diversified Income™ Index (NQMAUS™) which was flat for the month.

Disclaimer:

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