Nasdaq Monthly Index Performance Commentary – July 2025

• July picked up where June left off as the Nasdaq-100 Index® (NDX®) rose by 2.4%. This brings the three-month return to 18.6%—the highest three-month return since November 2023 - January 2024.
• Amidst the shifting trade tariff deadlines, investors are largely focused on Q2 earnings as about half of NDX companies have reported through end of July.  84% of reported companies (41 out of 49) and 91% of reported NDX index weight (49 out of 54%) announced earnings that beat estimates.  The average EPS beat was ~11% and the average miss was ~5%.
• July economic data have been surprising to the upside, but the most recent jobs data came in weak. AI-related spending, especially capital expenditures by the NDX “Big 4”, continues to accelerate ahead of expectations and is now a major driver of US economic growth.
• Performance across Nasdaq’s suite of indexes finished higher in July with 97 of the indexes tracked in our report posting gains, and the average index was up 2%.

Charts of the Month

^{Source: Bloomberg, Nasdaq Global Indexes. Data as of July 31, 2025}

Executive Summary

The markets continued to broadly look through trade policy concerns and macro volatility as a level of top-down fatigue has likely set in. The Nasdaq-100® is higher by ~36% since the April 8^th lows, driven by the eight companies that comprise the Nasdaq-100 Mega™ Index (NDXMEGA™)—which tracks the performance of approximately the top 45% of the Nasdaq-100.  NDXMEGA has risen by ~49% over the same period. The CBOE Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) has been well below its April highs, spending most of July in a tight range of 17-20, near its lowest levels since December 2024. The July nonfarm payrolls report and downward revisions to the prior two months have spurred concerns about the near-term trajectory of the U.S. economy. However, broader economic activity has remained relatively resilient, leading the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index to move into positive territory in July and enjoy its longest stretch of being above 0—indicating more positive than negative economic readings relative to estimates—since January 2025. The latest payrolls data and the August 1st trade tariff rates coming into effect for most trade partners led to a notable drop in Treasury yields in recent days as Federal Reserve rate cut expectations increased, with a resumption of cuts now priced in for September. Stepping back, the Treasury 10-year yield has been in a 4.25% to 4.45% band for most of the past three months.

With early indications that the tariff effects are beginning to filter through to Corporate America and the U.S. consumer (e.g., per the June CPI report: toy prices had their largest monthly increase since April 2021; sports equipment largest since January 2022; appliances the largest increase in almost five years), investors will be focused on the impact to U.S. corporate profit margins which remain elevated. Many of the largest NDX companies including Meta Platforms (Nasdaq: META), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOG/GOOGL), and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) reported strong earnings and positive outlooks. Collectively, the “big 4” spenders on AI-related capex (META/MSFT/AMZN/GOOG) are expected to spend ~$350B in 2025 and ~$400B in 2026 after bumping up their guidance yet again during 2Q’25 earnings season in the face of insatiable demand for AI compute, more than doubling what they spent back in 2023. Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) was the notable laggard, reporting continued weakness in sales internationally and facing US headwinds from expiring federal rebates for electric vehicles. 

Nasdaq Indexes July 2025 Performance Recap

Among the 123 indexes tracked in this report, 97 finished July in positive territory, while 26 ended with negative returns. The best-performing index was the Nasdaq Ethereum Settlement Price™ Index (NQETHS™), delivering a return of 48.8%.  The worst performance was from the ISE Cyber Security^TM Index (HXR™) which lost –4.7% for the month. The average return across all 123 indexes for the month was +2%.

Nasdaq Featured Indexes

12 out of the 14 Nasdaq Featured Indexes registered positive returns in July as the market rally continued to be widespread. The Nasdaq-100 Mega™ Index (NDXMEGA™) was the top performer, registering a return of 6.6% while the Nasdaq-100 ex Top 30™ Index (NDX70™) was the bottom performer in the group with a small loss of -0.4%. The continued strong recovery of mega cap stocks helped the Nasdaq-100 Index® (NDX®) as it was up 2.4%. The Nasdaq Next Generation 100™ Index (NGX™) also fared well as it was up 4.0%. A new addition to the line-up, the Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted Select™ Index (NDXSE™), was up 0.9% for the month. Overall, this group of indexes was up by an average of 2.1%.

Nasdaq Global Indexes

Performance across the Nasdaq Global Indexes suite was strong as 7 out of 9 indexes in the group had positive returns for July. We continued to see an unwinding of the relative outperformance of international stocks vs. the US from earlier this year, with the Nasdaq US Large Cap™ Index (NQUSL™) the best performer once again, rising 2.4%. The Nasdaq Global™ Index (NQGI™) was up 1.4%.  This was comprised of the Nasdaq Developed Markets™ Index (NQDM™) which rose 1.4% and the Nasdaq Emerging Markets™ Index (NQEM™) which had a return of 0.6%. The group's underperformer was the Nasdaq Europe™ Index (NQEU™) with a return of -1.5%, dragged down by unfavorable tariff deal dynamics and lagging earnings vs. the US among some of the biggest companies. The average return for this group of indexes was +1.0%.

Nasdaq Sector-Specific Indexes

Only 2 out of 6 indexes within Nasdaq’s sector-specific indexes were positive. The KBW Nasdaq Bank™ Index (BKX™) was the top performer, registering a positive return of 2.4%.  The KBW Property and Casualty™ Index (KPX™) was the laggard in the group yet again, losing -4.5%.

Nasdaq Thematic Indexes

Overall performance across the Nasdaq Thematic Tech lineup was moderately positive with 15 out of the 25 indexes in the suite recording gains, averaging 0.2%. The best performing index in the group was the Nasdaq Biotechnology™ Index (NBI®) with a return of 5.5%, bringing its YTD performance back to positive. Biotech has been one of the weakest thematic areas for investors over the past few years, and July saw a reversal in negative headlines with some potential tailwinds from government policies around pricing and tariffs, as well as a few standout earnings reports. The ISE Cyber Security^TM Index (HXR™) was the worst performer, posting a loss of -4.7%. Cybersecurity has been one of the strongest thematic areas in the past few years, and may have experienced weakness due to some technical drivers around positioning and momentum reversals earlier in the month, in line with other segments in the software space.

Ten out of the thirteen indexes in the Nasdaq Thematic Renewables and Energy Transition Materials suite posted gains this month, with an average return of 3.3%. The best performer in the group was the Nasdaq Sprott Lithium Miners™ Index (NSLITP™) which was up 14.1%.  The Nasdaq Sprott Junior Uranium Miners™ Index (NSURNJ™) was the worst performer in July with a loss of -2.5%. The ISE Clean Edge Global Water™ Index (GHHO™) was added to the report this month, posting a return of 0.3%.

The Nasdaq Crypto Index suite had an average gain of 21.6%.  The Nasdaq Ether Settlement Price™ Index (NQETHS™) had the highest return of the group at 48.8%. The Nasdaq Bitcoin Settlement Price™ Index (NQBTCS™) had the lowest return, up 8.6%. Crypto currencies have benefited as a form of “digital gold” given broadly supportive U.S. policy moves, federal deficit concerns, and more recently following the passage of the GENIUS Act which focuses on regulating stablecoins. The cryptocurrency momentum is most evident via Bitcoin which recently set another all-time high of $120,000. This has driven the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) to take in nearly $20 billion YTD to push its assets under management to over $86 billion—making it the seventh largest iShares ETF and the fastest ETF ever to eclipse $70 billion after launching in January 2024. While not at all-time highs, Ethereum is higher by 149% from its April 8th lows and iShares Ethereum ETF (ETHA) has seen $5.8 billion of inflows YTD to take total assets to over $10 billion.

Nasdaq Quantitative Indexes 

Across the index suites comprising Nasdaq’s quantitative offerings, performance was mostly positive with 47 out of the 52 indexes seeing gains in July. The average return was 1.5%. All ten indexes in the Nasdaq Options & Other Quantitative suite saw gains, and ten out of the eleven Nasdaq Multifactor indexes were positive this month. Within the Dorsey Wright momentum suite, the Dorsey Wright Utilities Tech Leaders™ Index (DWUT™) was the best performer, gaining 6.1%.  The Dorsey Wright Healthcare Tech Leaders™ Index (DWHC™) was the worst performing index at -2.8%.

All 15 indexes in the Nasdaq Dividend and Income suite posted gains this month, with an average return of 1.1%. The Nasdaq US SMID Rising Dividend Achievers™ Index (NQDVSMR™) was the top performer, posting a return of 2.1%. The worst performer in the group was the Nasdaq International Dividend Achievers™ Index (DAT™) which was up 0.1% for the month.

Disclaimer:

_{Nasdaq® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing. ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.}

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