Nasdaq Monthly Index Performance Commentary – January 2026

• The Nasdaq-100 Index^® (NDX^®) ended January 2026 higher by 1.21%--the fourth straight positive January and the 9th in the last 10 years.
• Despite the return of macro volatility and geopolitical concerns, the outlook for U.S. equities remains broadly constructive as investors turn to Q4 2025 earnings results as the next signpost.
• Nasdaq’s suite of indexes ended January on a positive note, with 104 of 125 indexes tracked in our report posting gains and the average index rising 4.0%.
• Investors will next focus on the Q4 2025 earnings season where expectations are for Nasdaq-100 earnings to grow by 19% year-over-year.

Chart of the Month
 

Executive Summary

Amidst geopolitical concerns and the reemergence of trade tariff rhetoric, augmented by fiscal concerns centered in Japan, U.S. equity volatility (as measured by Nasdaq-100 Volatility (VXN)) hit a two-month high while fixed income markets were also volatile. The equity markets were briefly whipsawed towards the end of January as they watched whether newly threatened U.S. trade tariffs of 10% on select European countries’ imports would become a reality on February 1st or were more of a negotiation tactic due to the debate over Greenland’s future. As of the time of this writing, it is the latter as the U.S. announced that these tariffs will not be imposed.

Where geopolitical volatility has played out the most thus far is in currencies, as the USD index approached four-year lows, and in commodities as gold and silver continued to set new highs—though these markets were very volatile at month’s end. For now, we do not see the latest bout of macro volatility and uncertainties as likely to cause a shift in the broader fundamental outlook, and investors continue to focus on economic data and corporate trends—particularly around AI capex.

The overarching base case broadly remains in place: a solid corporate earnings backdrop, supported by a relatively resilient economy driven by the AI theme, fiscal stimulus in 2026 (e.g., Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill will add 0.9% to U.S. growth in 2026), ongoing deregulation, and accommodative financial conditions.

Nasdaq Indexes January 2026 Performance Recap

Among the 125 indexes tracked in this report, 104 finished January in positive territory, while 21 ended with negative returns. The best-performing index was the Nasdaq Sprott Junior Uranium Miners™ Index (NSURNJ™), delivering a return of 45.3%. The worst performance was from the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud™ Index (EMCLOUD™) which declined 13.9% for the month.The average return across all 125 indexes for the month was 4.0%.

Nasdaq Featured Indexes

Twelve out of the fourteen Nasdaq Featured Indexes registered positive returns in January. The Nasdaq-100 Dorsey Wright Momentum™ Index (NDXDWA™) was the top performer again, registering a return of 7.9% while the Nasdaq-100 Select Equal Weighted™ Index (NDXSE™) was the bottom performer in the group with a loss of 2%. The Nasdaq-100 Index^® (NDX^®) posted a return of 1.2%, snapping a 2 month losing streak following its all-time high on October 29^th. Smaller caps outperformed larger cap companies as the Nasdaq-100 Mega™ Index (NDXMEGA™) was down 1.2% and the Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted™ Index (NDXE™) climbed 1.5%, beating NDX by 0.30%. Overall, this group of indexes was up by an average of 1.8%.

Nasdaq Global Indexes

Performance across the Nasdaq Global Indexes was strong as all nine indexes in the group had positive returns for January. Developed international markets maintained their lead over the U.S. The strongest performance was in Asia Pacific ex-Japan. The Nasdaq ASPA Ex-Japan™ Index (NQASPAXJP™) was the top performer, up 7.9%. Europe was also a strong performer with the Nasdaq Europe™ Index (NQEU™) rising 4.7%. The Nasdaq Developed Markets™ Index (NQDM™) rose 6%. The bottom performer of the group was the Nasdaq US Large Cap™ Index (NQUSL™) which was up 1%. The Nasdaq US Small Cap™ Index (NQUSS™) was up 5.1%. The Nasdaq Emerging Markets™ Index (NQEM™) was up 5.4% on the back of a weaker US Dollar. The Nasdaq Global™ Index (NQGI™) had a return of 3.2%. The average return for this group of indexes was +4.3%.

Nasdaq Sector-Specific Indexes

Five out of the six indexes within Nasdaq’s sector-specific indexes were positive. The top performer was the PHLX Gold/Silver™ Index (XAU™) which gained 11.7% in January as gold approached $5,600 and silver topped $120 an ounce, respectively, on an intraday basis. These latest precious metal records were driven by the aforementioned return of geopolitical concerns and sell-off in global government debt markets. Concurrently, gold and silver benefited from the broad-based U.S. dollar index falling to a four-month low. However, following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair—seen as more of a moderate selection—gold had its largest daily percentage drop since 1983 and silver had its largest on record going back to 1968. The KBW Property & Casualty™ Index (KPX™) was the bottom performer losing 3.2%. The average return for the group was 4%.

Nasdaq Thematic Indexes

Overall performance across the Nasdaq Thematic Tech lineup was positive with thirteen out of the twenty-five indexes in the suite recording gains though the average return was only 0.4%. Broadly speaking, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) theme continued to be strong as the Nasdaq CTA Artificial Intelligence™ Index (NQINTEL™) and the Nasdaq Global AI and Big Data™ Index (NYGBIG™) were up 6% and 1.8% respectively. However, the near 50% hit rate and a near 0% average return for the group is driven by the developing bifurcation in the performance of semiconductor companies and software companies. Semiconductor companies continue to be the beneficiaries of AI related capital expenditures with the best performing index in the group being the Nasdaq US Smart Semiconductor™ Index (NQSSSE™) gaining 17.8%. The PHLX Semiconductor™ Index (SOX™) was also strong, up by 12.9%. By contrast, software companies including cloud and cybersecurity companies are increasingly facing competition from AI products that threaten to make software as a service (SaaS) more commoditized. The BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud™ Index (EMCLOUD™) was the worst performer, posting a loss of 13.9% and the ICE CTA Cloud Computing™ Index (CPQ™) was down 8.4%. The Nasdaq CTA Cybersecurity™ Index (NQCYBR™) lost 3.3% for the month.

All fifteen indexes in the Nasdaq Thematic Renewables and Energy Transition Materials suite posted gains this month, with an average return of 13.8%. The Nasdaq Sprott Energy Transition Materials™ Index (NSETM™) was up 23.1%. The Nasdaq Sprott Junior Uranium Miners™ Index (NSURNJ™) led all indexes in the group with a 45.3% surge, while the Nasdaq Sprott Junior Copper Miners™ Index (NSCOPJ™) also posted a double-digit rise of 20.2%. The Nasdaq OMX US Water™ Index (GRNWATUSL™) was the lowest performer with a gain of 2.9% in January.

The Nasdaq Crypto suite posted an average decline of 6.0%, with all four indexes in negative territory. The Nasdaq Bitcoin Settlement Price™ Index (NQBTCS™) led the group with the smallest loss of 4.4% while the lowest returning index was the Nasdaq Ether Settlement Price™ Index (NQETHS™) down 9.8%.

Nasdaq Quantitative Indexes

Across the index suites comprising Nasdaq’s quantitative offerings, 50 out of the 52 indexes posted gains in January, averaging a 4.3% return.

All ten indexes in the Nasdaq Options & Other Quantitative suite saw gains with an average return of 1.9%, and all eleven Nasdaq Multifactor indexes were positive this month with an average return of 4.1%.

Within the Dorsey Wright momentum suite, the Dorsey Wright Energy Tech Leaders™ Index (DWEN™) was the best performer, up 11.6%. The Dorsey Wright Healthcare Tech Leaders™ Index (DWHC™) was the weakest again, down 2.7%. Overall, fourteen of the sixteen indexes in the suite were positive with an average gain of 5.9%.

All fifteen indexes in the Nasdaq Dividend and Income suite posted gains this month, with an average return of 4.2%. The Nasdaq Emerging Markets High Equity Income™ Index (NQEMHEI™) topped the group with a 8.6% gain. The worst performer in the group was the Nasdaq US BuyBack Achievers™ Index (DRB™) which was up 1.0% for the month.

Disclaimer:

_{Nasdaq^® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing. ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.}

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