Nasdaq Monthly Index Performance Commentary – August 2025

• The Nasdaq-100 Index® (NDX®) posted a very strong Q2 earnings season during which 88% of reported companies announced earnings that beat estimates, and the blended year-over-year EPS growth is 35.4% versus estimates of 22.3%. NVIDIA reported strong quarterly earnings at the end of August, however the market reaction to their forward guidance was tepid.  NDX rose by 0.8% for the month of August though it had been up more than 2% for the month prior to the NVIDIA earnings release.  NDX is now up 11.4% YTD.
• Weaker July nonfarm payrolls coupled with a broadly in-line CPI report and Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech have increased September Fed rate cut expectations.
• Performance across Nasdaq’s suite of indexes finished higher in August with 104 of the indexes tracked in our report posting gains, and the average index was up 3.3%.

Chart of the Month

• The blended NDX EPS growth rate at quarterly intervals is at its highest since Q4 2023

Source: Nasdaq, Factset

• The earnings outlook improved as the worst-case scenarios of the trade policy implications on earnings receded. Equities have reacted accordingly from their April lows as the reversal in earnings revisions breadth has fueled the NDX.

Source: Nasdaq, Factset

Earnings Revision Breadth is the difference between the number of upward analyst revisions and downward analyst revisions divided by the total number of analyst revisions.

Executive Summary

Following another strong Q2 earnings season and post the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, both U.S. and international equities are hovering near all-time highs driven by steady fundamentals. The resilience of the U.S. economy despite increased macro volatility and policy uncertainties has been the steady surprise for the markets in 2025. That said, ongoing uncertainties and the lagged softening of economic activity has filtered through to recent “Tier 1” economic reports. Although the July payrolls report indicates that companies are cautious as they are hiring less given persisting trade tariff concerns, they are not laying off workers en masse.

While there are signs of tariff-driven inflation in the July PPI report as wholesale inflation rose by the most in three years and in the July CPI report (e.g., core goods inflation rose 1.2% year-over-year, a two-year high), the CPI was broadly in-line with expectations. The markets took Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s speech on August 22^nd at Jackson Hole as all but solidifying a 25-basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on September 17^th. As the dust has settled following Powell’s speech, the broadly in-line July CPI report, and the weaker July nonfarm payrolls, markets are pricing in around a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut as its employment mandate is seemingly outweighing its inflation mandate. 

Despite the perennial “wall of worry” for risk assets—e.g., yet to be realized economic impacts from an effective trade tariff rate in the 15% to 20% range (per The Budget Lab at Yale University; the highest since 1934), fiscal policy concerns, elevated valuations, market complacency as equity volatility hovers near YTD lows, Fed political pressures—the medium-term outlook remains broadly supportive for U.S. equities. While September is historically the weakest month for equities, looking ahead, solid earnings trends and the AI revolution, supportive financial conditions and the expected Fed easing, fiscal stimulus filtering via the recent tax cut legislation, and a slowing but still steady economic backdrop are the key underpinnings for equities we’re continuing to monitor.

Nasdaq Indexes August 2025 Performance Recap

Among the 123 indexes tracked in this report, 104 finished August in positive territory, while 19 ended with negative returns. The best-performing index was the Nasdaq Sprott Lithium Miners™ Index (NSLITP™), delivering a return of 23.9%.  The worst performance was from the Nasdaq Bitcoin Settlement Price™ Index (NQBTCS™) which lost –7.2% for the month. The average return across all 123 indexes for the month was +3.3%. 

Nasdaq Featured Indexes

7 out of the 14 Nasdaq Featured Indexes registered positive returns in August. The Nasdaq Innovators Completion Cap™ Index (NCX™) was the top performer, registering a return of 10.2% while the Nasdaq-100 Dorsey Wright Momentum™ Index (NDXDWA™) was the bottom performer in the group with a loss of –2.0%. The continued strong recovery of mega cap stocks helped the Nasdaq-100 Index® (NDX®) as it was up 0.8%. The Nasdaq-100 Top 30™ Index (NDX30™) was up 1.5% and the Nasdaq-100 Mega™ Index (NDXMEGA™) climbed 1.4%.   Overall, this group of indexes was up by an average of 1.3%. 

Nasdaq Global Indexes

Performance across the Nasdaq Global Indexes suite was strong as all 9 indexes in the group had positive returns for August. The Nasdaq US Small Cap™ Index (NQUSS™) was best performer rising 6.6% on hopes of an interest rate cut. The Nasdaq ASPA Ex Japan™ Index (NQASPAXJP™) was the bottom performer of the group though it still had a positive of 1.1%. The Nasdaq Global™ Index (NQGI™) had a return of 2.6%.  This was comprised of the Nasdaq Developed Markets™ Index (NQDM™) which rose 2.7% and the Nasdaq Emerging Markets™ Index (NQEM™) which had a return of 1.4%. The average return for this group of indexes was +2.9%.

Nasdaq Sector-Specific Indexes

All 6 indexes within Nasdaq’s sector-specific indexes were positive. The PHLX Gold/Silver™ Index (XAU™) was the top performer, registering a positive return of 22% and is now up 81.6% year to date.  Gold has rallied on sustained U.S. Dollar weakness this year and a concern that a likely cut in rates by the Fed in September could be a headwind in their fight to further reduce inflation. The KBW Property and Casualty™ Index (KPX™) was the laggard in the group though it was up 3.4%.

Nasdaq Thematic Indexes

Overall performance across the Nasdaq Thematic Tech lineup was positive with 22 out of the 25 indexes in the suite recording gains, averaging 2.3%. The best performing index in the group was the Nasdaq CTA Global Video Games & ESports™ Index (PLAYER™) with a return of 6.7%.  The Nasdaq Singularity™ Index (NQ2045™) was the worst performer, posting a loss of –1.3%. The Nasdaq CTA Global Digital Health™ Index (BEWELL™) had a strong month, rising 5% as did the Nasdaq Biotechnology® Index (BIO®) which was up 4.9%. 

Performance was strong across the Nasdaq Thematic Renewables and Energy Transition Materials suite as twelve out of the thirteen indexes posted gains this month, with an average return of 8.7%. The best performer in the group was the Nasdaq Sprott Lithium Miners™ Index (NSLITP™) which was up 23.9% in August on top of a 14.1% return in July.  The ISE Clean Edge Global Wind Energy™ Index (GWE™) was the worst performer with a loss of -2.2%. The Nasdaq  Sprott Energy Transition Materials™ Index (NSETM™) had a strong month, posting a return of 18.3%.

The Nasdaq Crypto Index suite had a mixed month. The Nasdaq Ether Settlement Price™ Index (NQETHS™) had the highest return of the group at 16.3%. The rest of the suite posted negative returns with the Nasdaq Bitcoin Settlement Price™ Index (NQBTCS™) having the lowest return, down -7.2%. The average return for the suite was 0.8%. Digital asset treasury companies have been accumulating ether driving prices higher. The iShares Ethereum ETF (ETHA) had $3.4B in flows in August and now has over $16.1B in assets under management

Nasdaq Quantitative Indexes

Across the index suites comprising Nasdaq’s quantitative offerings, performance was mostly positive with 47 out of the 52 indexes seeing gains in August. The average return was 2.6%. Nine out of the ten indexes in the Nasdaq Options & Other Quantitative suite saw gains, and all eleven of the Nasdaq Multifactor indexes were positive this month. Within the Dorsey Wright momentum suite, the Dorsey Wright Basic Materials Tech Leaders™ Index (DWBM™) was the best performer, gaining 8.6%.  The Dorsey Wright Technology Tech Leaders™ Index (DWTY™) was the worst performing index at -3.3%.

All 15 indexes in the Nasdaq Dividend and Income suite posted gains this month, with an average return of 3.5%. The Nasdaq US High Equity Income™ Index (NQUSHEI™) was the top performer, posting a return of 5.9%. The lowest performer in the group was the Nasdaq 7HANDL™ Index (NQ7HANDL™) which was up 1.2% for the month.

Disclaimer:

_{Nasdaq® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing. ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.}

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