How to Weigh the Odds of a Crash

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How to Weigh the Odds of a Crash

(New York)

There has been a lot of talk about a possible market crash being on the cards. This is especially true as we are about to hit the 30th anniversary of the Black Monday crash of 1987, a day when the Dow fell by an astounding 22.8% in one day (equivalent to a 5,000+ point single day drop today). What makes that crash scary is that p/e ratios were barely above average, and well below today's. However, the WSJ cites sources which contend there is a much lower chance of such a decline today, and that it is not time to panic. That said, the market does seem to be underpricing "tail risk" or the odds of extreme events bringing down the market.

FINSUM : Though the figures from 1987 are sobering, we are growing weary of these doom-type stories. The reality is that one knows when we are going to have a meltdown, and that until it happens, most institutional money managers will stay in markets to make sure to they meet their benchmarks.

  • stocks
  • bear market
  • black monday
  • valuations
  • volatility

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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