A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.
"sentiment and surveys improving, but positioning on many measures smacks of skepticism/risk-off...Everyone says everyone else is bullish but few are positioned for risk-on."
-BofA's Savita
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) VS Small Cap = Russell 2000 (IWM), looking to take out the Nov highs?
1) KEY TAKEAWAYS
1) Equities + Oil + Gold + Dollar HIGHER / TYields LOWER
-ECB Holds Key Rate at Record High: rate decision signals concerns about high inflation even as the eurozone economy flirts with recession. -WSJ
-AAII Weekly Retail Sentiment: bullish + bearish ticked down while neutral sentiment rose.
-Tax deal odds rising...
-A rebound in jobless claims: "despite the increases in the latest week, both initial and continued claims continued to trend lower" | no cause for alarm in jobs market
* source: Oxford Economics
DJ +0.2% S&P500 +0.4% Nasdaq +0.3% R2K +1.1% Cdn TSX +0.3%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1% APAC stocks HIGHER, 10YR TYield = 4.138%
Dollar HIGHER, Gold $2,024, WTI +2%, $77; Brent +2%, $81, Bitcoin $39,964
2) "We see a recovery in M&A and capital market activity as an important theme for 2024. Financial conditions are starting to improve with lower rates, credit market is fully functional, corporate fundamentals are solid and a strong USD may prompt more cross-regional deals." -Emmanuel Cau, Barclays
* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau
3) The Hot & Cold Economy | U.S. economy +3.3% pace in Q4, much better than expected -CNBC
* source: CNBC
4) more on the evolution of Passive vs Active investing ...
Where did all the fundamental investors go?
Active equity exposure of asset owners shrank, private and passive equity AUM growth took at least half of active stock pickers' share since 2006.
* source: BofA's Savita
5) Yesterday's PMIs came in stronger than expected..."mfg and services both exceeding soft expectations." | pushed TYields higher | income sectors and defensive stocks underperformed...
* source: Piper Sandler
6) IPO + M&A volumes dropping, continued...
* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau
7) "The “Nasdaq IPO Pulse Index” suggests an upswing in potential IPO activity when it is in an uptrend – it is now at its highest level since 2021 – compared to a pullback in IPO activity when the index is trending in the other direction." -Nasdaq
* source: Nasdaq
8) MSFT reaches $3T in market cap!
* source: CNBC
9) IPO + M&A volumes dropping, continued...
* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau
10) China flirting with easy money to address slowing growth + weak stock market...
* source: Piper Sandler
11) THIS WEEK:
"Growth indicators will be in focus with key releases including the preliminary Q4 GDP reading in the US and the global flash PMIs.
On the inflation front, there will be prints for US PCE and Tokyo CPI.
In US politics, the spotlight will be on the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.
From central banks, there will be decisions from the BoJ, the ECB and the BoC, with the ECB's bank lending survey also due." -Deutsche Bank
* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau
2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE
Biden’s Natural Gas Plan Coming Soon as Industry Mounts Lobbying Blitz - BNN
-The Biden administration is set to unveil plans within days for intensifying environmental scrutiny of applications to export natural gas, potentially stalling massive planned projects for months, if not longer.
-US law already requires the government to weigh whether exports are in the public interest. But officials have mulled ways to beef up that review, diving more deeply into the impacts the projects will have on climate change.
EU fossil fuel CO2 emissions hit 60-year low - Guardian
-The European Union pumped out 8% less carbon dioxide from the fossil fuels it burned in 2023 than it did in 2022, pushing these emissions down to their lowest level in 60 years.
-More than half of the drop in emissions came from the use of cleaner electricity, the report found. The EU built record levels of solar panels and wind turbines in 2023, according to industry data, and was able to make more electricity from dams and nuclear power plants that had been struck by drought and repair work the year before.
4) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS
- Record-high US stocks grow more expensive versus global peers-RTRS
- China's $6 trillion stock wipeout exposes deeper problems for Xi-BBG
- US GDP data will feature consumer set to power growth in ’24-BBG
- China GDP: provinces set conservative 2024 economic growth targets-SCMP
- Germany’s business outlook unexpectedly sours-BBG
- ECB to keep pushing back on rate cut bets despite anaemic growth-RTRS
- Norway keeps rates on hold, will remain unchanged 'for some time'-RTRS
- Australia seen cutting interest rates late this year as inflation lingers-BBG
- Trumponomics 2.0: less tax tailwind, more trade turmoil-MSN
- Trump Biden shift focus to general election rematch as Haley fights on-RTRS
- Donald Trump’s New Hampshire win hides White House electability issues-FT
- Haley faces growing pressure from Republicans drop out pres race-WASHPO
- Democrats fear economic fallout from Red Sea could hurt them November-POL
- Israel denies attack UN refuge Gaza that drew rebuke from Washington-RTRS
- Moscow blames Kyiv as Russian military plane crash kills 74-FT
- Musk: Chinese EV firms will 'demolish' rivals without trade barriers-RTRS
- Federal Reserve Board announces the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11-FED
- David Ellison’s Skydance Media explores acquiring all Paramount Global-CNBC
- StarCharge weighing $500 million Hong Kong IPO due to EV boom-BBG
- Greece to launch Athens airport IPO on Jan. 25-RTRS
- Alfen marks first Battery Energy Storage System-ALFEN
- Tesla shares drop after sales growth warning-FT
- Boeing blocked from building more 737s in hit to growth plan-BBG
- US plans ‘bigger picture exam’ of Boeing issues, Buttigieg says-BBG
- IBM sees strong 2024 sales, free cash flow; job cuts planned-BBG
- Apple's iPhone shipments China drop 2% Q4 Huawei grows market share-RTRS
- ECB asks some lenders to monitor social media early signs of bank runs-RTRS
Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Russian Black Sea oil refinery fire extinguished-RTRS 2) Weaker fuel prices, outages to hit US refiners' fourth quarter profits-RTRS 3) Canada's Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to start in April-RTRS 4) Baker Hughes expects North America oilfield spend to decline in 2024-RTRS 5) 2 US-flagged ships with cargo for US Defense Department come under attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels-AP
About the author
Massud Ghaussy, CFA, is part of Nasdaq's IR Insights team and delivers daily insights that empowers readers to get a sense of the important issues impacting the day's trading.