For the quarter ended March 2023, Progressive (PGR) reported revenue of $14.23 billion, up 15.8% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.65, compared to $1.12 in the year-ago quarter.
The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.12 billion, representing a surprise of +0.80%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of -54.86%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.44.
While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.
As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.
Here is how Progressive performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
- Expense Ratio: 20.6% versus 20.08% estimated by six analysts on average.
- Loss & loss adjustment expense ratio: 78.4% compared to the 73.7% average estimate based on six analysts.
- Combined Ratio - Insurance Segment (Underwriting Ratios): 99% versus the six-analyst average estimate of 93.77%.
- Total Personal Lines Combined ratio: 98.7% versus the four-analyst average estimate of 93.15%.
- Service revenues: $72.50 million versus $73.05 million estimated by six analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +7.1% change.
- Net premiums earned: $13.53 billion versus $13.41 billion estimated by six analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +14.7% change.
- Investment income: $419.60 million compared to the $375.94 million average estimate based on six analysts. The reported number represents a change of +73.3% year over year.
- Fees and other revenues: $206.20 million versus the five-analyst average estimate of $194.49 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +18.5%.
- Net premiums earned-Personal Lines-Direct: $5.72 billion compared to the $5.72 billion average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +19.3% year over year.
- Net premiums earned-Commercial Lines: $2.36 billion versus the three-analyst average estimate of $2.46 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +10.8%.
- Net premiums earned-Personal Lines-Agency: $4.86 billion compared to the $4.84 billion average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +12.4% year over year.
- Net premiums earned-Personal lines: $10.58 billion compared to the $10.57 billion average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +16% year over year.
Shares of Progressive have returned +9.7% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +6.1% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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