Nasdaq Markets Outlook

The Markets Outlook is a mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

| The Hot & Cold Economy | Soft, hard, or no landing? | "We are at a point in the cycle where there is data that can support just about any market narrative" -Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler

* source: Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz

recession probability forecasts = all over the map = wide range of forecasts | Bofa @ 60% / GS @ 20%

* source: BofA's Savita

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

| Fed and interest rate path, lots of speculation as to when and by how much rate cuts | Peak/terminal rates = 5.4% - 5.6% | 100bps - 150bps cuts in 2024 | 50bps - 125bps cuts in 2025

and obviously yields are projected to fall

* source: Deutsche Bank

| with rates higher for longer = focus on corporates + higher cost of servicing debt | "while high corporate debt will likely weigh on near-term S&P 500 spending, it poses little risk to US equities" -Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

balance sheet strength

key in performance with higher for longer rates?

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

| Earnings estimates dispersion | "Valuations continue to be a big talking point for investors. This is not surprising given multiple expansion has been the primary driver of returns all year...Today we are seeing a wide uncertainty (i.e. dispersion) in estimates and in turn, a potentially wide band on the market's forward multiple..."

* source: Piper Sandler

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities LOWER + TYields HIGHER

| China property market + economic concerns?: China Finance Giant’s Missed Payments Alarm Regulators, Markets -BBG| Shanghai Composite lowest level since January | Yuan continues to weaken against the Dollar | this week: retail earnings

DJ -0.2% S&P500 -0.1% Nasdaq +0.1% R2K -1.2% Cdn TSX -0.5%

Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2% APAC stocks LOWER, 10YR TYield = 4.203%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $1,903, WTI -1%, $82; Brent -1%, $86, Bitcoin $29,329

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2) UMichigan’s measure of consumer confidence edged lower in August, likely to drop further because of the recent increase in gas prices

* source: Oxford Economics

3) market breadth = "near-term trends are considerably weaker"

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

4) The Week Ahead | retail sales + FOMC minutes = highlights

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

5) Performance: Energy = top performer last week while Technology top underperformer | all major market indexes finished in negative territory

* source: Piper Sandler

6) what impact will an aggressive monetary tightening have? | whats next to break?

* source: Yardeni Research

7) Disinflation is a big topic...

* source: Oxford Economics

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

OFF TODAY

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

56% of student-loan borrowers: loan payments vs necessities-CNBC

• ‘Unluckiest generation’ falters in boomer-dominated market for homes-WP
• Post pandemic ‘revenge spending’ for Beyonce and Taylor Swift-NYT
• Hollywood calls time on golden era of cheap streaming-FT
• Hedge funds pile into equities after missing this year’s rally-FT
• Walmart leads retailers shining spotlight on key market signal-BBG
• Bond market sees no end to tumult as fed casts a hawkish shadow-BBG
• China finance giant’s missed payments alarm regulators, markets-BBG
• China's Country Garden seeks to delay onshore bond repayment-RTRS
• China’s economic recovery faces risks from property crisis-BBG
• China c.bank seen leaving policy loan rate unchanged on Tuesday-RTRS
• Huge inflows to China ETFs prompt speculation about state buying-FT
• Funds fret over the fallout of Biden's China order-RTRS
• U.S.-led naval group warns ships to avoid Iranian waters to avoid seizure-RTRS
• Ukraine makes ‘tactically significant’ progress in its counteroffensive-NYT
• China criticizes visit of 'troublemaker' Taiwan VP to US-RTRS
• SoftBank in talks to buy Vision Fund's 25% stake in Arm-RTRS
• Electric van group Arrival lines up A&M in survival battle-SKY
• AMC’s revised stock conversion plan is approved by court-BBG
• Jet charter firm Wheels Up in talks with lenders amid cash crunch-RTRS
• Thoma Bravo extends closing date Forgerock deal to stall antitrust review-BBG
• Calmer heads prevail: Strike Energy inks deal with rival gas Minnow-AFR
• Korea Zinc to begin production of green hydrogen in Australia next year-PULSE
• Tesla cuts China prices again, triggering auto stock slump-BBG
• US Steel explores options after rejecting $7.3B offer from Cleveland-Cliffs-RTRS
• Nikola recalls all battery-electric trucks, halts sales after fire probe-RTRS
• WeWork may be struggling, but the co-working sector is on the upswing-AXIOS
• China’s worsening economy is hurting Corporate America-WSJ
• Hollywood writers to evaluate new labor proposal from studios-BBG
• Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Russia Oil passes price cap as export revenue hits 2023 high-BBG 2) Oil exports rise during Sudan War as pipeline left unscathed-BBG