Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

| Last week = quiet + short trading week | "So, stocks and bonds operated in tight ranges, and the Nasdaq 100 end the week up 1%, while 10-year Treasury yields were up just 3 basis points to 4.47%." -Michael Normyle, Nasdaq US Economist

| MSCI quarterly review as of close Nov. 30, 2023. Expect elevated volumes/volatility particularly at the open and close leading up to and on the rebalancing date

| AAII Weekly (Retail) Sentiment: Bullish + neutral rose, bearish fell to the lowest level since August

| Bond yields seem to be stabilizing / around 4.5% of the 10YR

| Dollar (on lower yields) + Oil (slowing global economy) have been falling while Gold (geopolitics + inflation hedge?) has been rising

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

| "Despite sharply lower gasoline prices, consumer inflation expectations (short and long-term) rose in Nov -- inflation is “different this time.” Today, it’s high price LEVELS, not their change, that are supporting higher inflation expectations … a dilemma for the Fed." -Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar

* source: Piper Sandler, Nancy Lazar

| Equity markets back to eerily quiet as VIX (Volatility Index) hitting multi-year lows

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

| corporate credit spreads just hit their lowest level in a year-and-a-half

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

| Recession ahead? | Last week: "The Conference Board’s Leading Index fell 0.8% in October, the 19th consecutive down-tick for the composite index of ten leading data points"

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

| Earnings | "The bigger earnings question is probably whether or not current ’24 and ’25 expectation can materialize? Currently, expectations are 11.4% & 12% for ’24 & ’25. While anything is possible, an acceleration of that magnitude would be unprecedented with so much tightening in the system."

* source: Piper Sandler

| all eyes on the consumer for 2024...a source of weakness for the economy? | will unemployment rate rise?

* source: Deutsche Bank

| Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research on

4 themes from Q3 2023 conference calls:

-interest expense

-paying down down

-consumer spending

-AI

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

| The secular shift from actively-managed to passively-managed funds has accelerated meaningfully in 2023

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities + Oil + TYields LOWER | Dollar HIGHER

Themes: Elevated cash remains on the sidelines | Volatility (VIX) continues to fall | has rally peaked after short covering in recent week? = major averages hitting resistance levels | Signs point to the beginning of consumer weakness | Invesco’s QQQ ETF, tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index, reported its largest weekly inflow in history the week of Nov. 13. | Small-cap stocks have trailed Large caps this year by a historic margin

institutions + investors together have a record $5.7 trillion parked in cash-like money-market funds, many of which are yielding above 5%, according to the Investment Company Institute -WSJ

-By Shon Wilk

DJ -0.2% S&P500 -0.3% Nasdaq -0.3% R2K -0.9% Cdn TSX -0.1%

Stoxx Europe 600 -0.1% APAC stocks LOWER, 10YR TYield = 4.451%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $2,011, WTI -0%, $75; Brent -0%, $80, Bitcoin $36,839

2) LAST WEEK:

* source: Factset, created by Gavin Zaentz

* source: Piper Sandler

3) Housing

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

4) THIS WEEK:

"US growth dynamics will be in focus next week with releases including personal
income and spending data as well as the ISM manufacturing index.

In Europe, all eyes will be on the preliminary CPI reports for November. There will also be economic activity indicators in Japan and the PMIs in China.

Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde and BoE
Governor Bailey.

Notable corporate earnings include Dell and Salesforce"

.-Deutsche Bank

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

OFF THIS WEEK

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Nasdaq bets on boom in ‘zero day’ options with new contracts-FT
• Investors are hungry for risk—and holding record cash sums-WSJ
• ‘AI Blowback’ angst grips ESG investors who bet big on tech-BBG
• US Black Friday sales rise 2.5%, Mastercard Spending, pulse says-RTRS
• Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion in U.S. online sales-CNBC
• Shoppers click 'buy' as retailers slash prices ahead of Cyber Monday-RTRS
• American borrowers are getting closer to maxing out-WSJ
• Hamas frees further 17 hostages on third day of Israel-Gaza truce-FT
• Russia downs drones over Moscow in Ukrainian retaliatory strike-BBG
• Taiwan draws clear US-vs.-China battle lines in key election-BBG
• China launches probe into struggling shadow bank Zhongzhi-FT
• Sunak eyes more tax cuts in spring as he weighs UK election date-BBG
• Property boss David Sleath gives warehouses the hard sell-FT
• TechnologyOne has never made a big acquisition. Now it wants to-AFR
• Bayer chief blames thin drug pipeline on ‘years of under-investment’-FT
• Rolls-Royce boss Tufan Erginbilgic: Britain must win nuclear race-MONEY
• Elliott to seek more change at Crown Castle after share price slump-RTRS
• Final bids for $500 million-plus Cura auction; doctors weigh in-AFR
• German football league expects at least four bids 1 billion euro stake sale-RTRS
• More than 2,500 jobs at risk in Lloyds shake-up-TG
• UK ecommerce group adds Adore Beauty to its cart-AFR

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) China raises fuel oil import quotas by 3 mln tons for non-state firms-RTRS 2) Trans Mountain faces regulatory hearing on pipeline variance request-RTRS 3) Black Sea storm halts oil loadings, cuts power in Crimea-BBG 4) Kenya to begin privatisation drive, offers stakes in 11 companies-RTRS 5) Why calls for oil embargo on Israel are unlikely to go anywhere-RTRS 6) OPEC+ moving closer to compromise with African producers, sources say-RTRS