Credit: Barclays Capital outlines the following 4 global macro-themes for 2016:
Market watchers love to talk about clear ideas but keeping the themes in mind and seeing how they change and develop is the genesis of a great macro trade.
Theme 1: Developed markets will continue to grow steadily, but emerging markets remain weak
-Strong global consumer + trade/investment/manufacturing recession = mediocre but positive growth
Theme 2: Emerging Markets: still not sounding the all-clear
-The China slowdown - accrual accounting, not mark to market
-Broader ramifications - on EM and commodity countries
-Brazil - things should get worse before they get better
-Political dysfunction amid worsening economic and fiscal dynamics
Theme 3: The Fed lift-off cycle should proceed slowly as the Fed tests the limits of divergence
-But volatility regarding the Fed and China should increase as 2016 progresses
Theme 4: Poor liquidity has exacerbated market moves
-This is an ongoing theme that is likely to continue
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
