Key Points
IonQ’s fourth quarter earnings easily exceeded Wall Street’s estimates.
But its losses are staggering, and its stock still trades at a premium valuation.
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IonQ's (NYSE: IONQ) stock surged nearly 20% on Feb. 26 after the quantum computing company posted its fourth-quarter earnings report. Its revenue surged 429% year over year to $61.9 million, beating analysts' expectations by $21.5 million. Its adjusted net loss widened from $0.15 to $0.20 per share, but still cleared the consensus forecast by three cents.
For the full year, IonQ's revenue rose 202% to $130 million, marking an acceleration from its 95% growth in 2024 and 98% growth in 2023. But its adjusted net loss widened from $0.50 to $0.60 per share, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) turned redder, from negative $105.7 million to negative $186.8 million. IonQ's business is growing like a weed, which counters the notion that the quantum market is in a bubble, but should you buy its stock right now?
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Why is IonQ growing so rapidly?
Unlike classical computers, which read data as binary bits (zeros and ones), quantum computers can read both states simultaneously in qubits. That difference enables them to consume more data and perform specific tasks faster than classical computers. Still, they're larger, more expensive, consume more power, and produce a higher error rate.
IonQ aims to solve those issues by using tiny lasers to trap ions in a quantum state. Unlike older quantum systems, which accelerate electrons through loops and require cryogenic refrigeration, IonQ's trapped-ion systems can operate at room temperature. They also have higher gate-fidelity (error-detection) rates than electron-driven systems.
IonQ sells four systems: its older Aria system, its flagship Forte system, its data center-oriented Forte Enterprise system, and its newest Tempo system. It also provides its quantum computing power as a cloud-based service. It's expanded organically and inorganically since its public debut in 2021, and much of its recent growth has been driven by U.S. government contracts.
Is it the right time to buy IonQ's stock?
For 2026, IonQ expects its revenue to rise 73%-88% to $225-$245 million. However, it expects its adjusted EBITDA to decline again to negative $310-$330 million. With an enterprise value of $9.78 billion, it already trades at 42 times this year's sales.
IonQ could maintain that premium valuation if it continues to improve its trapped-ion technology, stays ahead of its peers, and secures even more contracts. However, it will need to eventually stabilize its margins and prove its business model is sustainable. IonQ's stock might be worth nibbling on as a speculative play on the nascent quantum market, but investors shouldn't back up the truck unless it stabilizes its adjusted EBITDA and net losses.
Should you buy stock in IonQ right now?
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
