Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

#marketseverywhere | "Profits are purpose ... Providing what a customer needs is exactly what contributes to the world’s well-being and creates societal wealth."

-Andy Kessler, Profits Can Be Your Purpose

| Jerome Powell at Capitol Hill today: rates are at peak / appropriate to dial back policy restraint at some point this year / patience stance

* source: Barcalys' Emmanuel Cau

| The AI revolution | "Nvidia overtook Saudi Aramco to become the third largest company in the world by market cap." -Deutsche Bank | JPM investor survey on Nvidia:

* source: JP Morgan

| Nasdaq Index has gone >300 days without a major pullback -MW

* source: CNBC

* source: Barcalys' Emmanuel Cau

| but the market seems to be bifurcated in many regions...

* source: Barcalys' Emmanuel Cau

| the bifurcated market, Mag 7 earnings vs rest of market

* source: JP Morgan

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

| sentiment remains mixed, path of least resistance is higher on relatively narrow breadth... as per JPM investor survey:

* source: JP Morgan

| "ISM services slightly weaker than expected topline, with mixed internals…

new orders better at 56.1 but employment sank to just 48.0 and the 6-month average is now below 50 (consistent with the slowing we’ve seen in “cyclical” hiring and the pickup in layoff announcements) …

prices paid reversed most of the Jan pop, now back to pre-Covid levels and consistent with slowing supercore inflation." -Piper Sandler

* source: Oxford Economics

| Piper Sandler's thoughts:

* source: Piper Sandler

| everyone talking about 2024 rate cuts...

1) DM Central Banks Have on Average Cut Rates 3 Times (by 105bp on Average) in the First Six Months After Starting to Normalize Policy in Historical Soft Landings

2) DM Central Banks Have Initiated Rate Cut Cycles With at Least 3 Consecutive Cuts in Over Half of Historical Soft Landings

3) Rate Cuts Tend to Be Faster if Inflation Has Fallen Below Target, Growth is Slowing, and if Central Banks Are Further Away from Neutral

4) Once a Cycle Has Started, Central Banks Are Most Likely to Adjust the Pace of Rate Cuts in Response to a Change in the Unemployment Rate

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

| corporate forward guidance has been weakening...

* source: JP Morgan

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities + Gold + Oil HIGHER | Dollar + TYields LOWER

-busy macro week | ISM services = Tue, ADP private payrolls + JOLTS job openings report = Wed, initial claims = Thurs, employment report = Fri | Fedspeak | Super Tuesday

DJ +0.3% S&P500 +0.6% Nasdaq +0.8% R2K +0.6% Cdn TSX +0.9%

Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5% APAC stocks HIGHER, 10YR TYield = 4.112%

Dollar LOWER, Gold $2,148, WTI +2%, $80; Brent +1%, $83, Bitcoin $66,252

2) World economy doing better than expected led by the US

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

3) "so the last mile of the inflation fight is tricky - disinflation is stalling" -Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

4) THIS WEEK:

"The US jobs report and Fed Chair Powell's testimonies will be among the highlights next week.

In Europe, there will be the ECB decision and economic activity indicators for key countries.

And on the political side, next week will see 'Super Tuesday' in the US, as well as the UK Budget.

Over in Asia, the focus will be on the National Party Congress in China and the
Tokyo CPI in Japan.

Corporate earnings include Broadcom and Target."

-Deutsche Bank

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

2) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Growing share of US workers get a pay freeze in Atlanta Fed data-BBG
• South Korea inflation quickens in February on supply-side pressures-RTRS
• German exports rise more than expected in January-RTRS
• Australia’s per capita recession deepens, even as economy grows-BBG
• Fed's Powell to set election year stage testimony on rate cuts, inflation-RTRS
• RBNZ may be able to cut sooner if Fed eases first, Conway says-BBG
• China central banker sees full toolbox as planners vow to hit GDP goal-NIKKEI
• China’s bullish 5% growth goal seen as ‘target without a plan’-BBG
• Bitcoin faces ‘sell-the-news’ moment after setting record high-BBG
• Donald Trump dominates Super Tuesday to close in Republican nomination-FT
• Ukraine says it has sunk a Russian patrol ship near Crimea-RTRS
• Hamas responds to ceasefire proposal but accuses Israel of ‘stalling’-CNN
• China's central bank governor says there's room to cut banks' reserve requirements-CNBC

• CrowdStrike soars after earnings beat and market share gains-BBG
• Tesla’s German plant remains halted in fresh blow to outlook-BBG
• Singapore’s Temasek in discussions to invest in OpenAI-FT
• Disney CEO ‘extremely confident’ in 2024 streaming profit-BBG
• Zillow drops as short seller highlights industry legal pressure-BBG
• Banks with heavy commercial property exposure see bonds get hit-BBG
• CrowdStrike to acquire Israeli co Flow Security for $200m-GLB
• We spent $1300 shopping at Cettire. Here’s what happened-AFR
• EV group Lucid admits it cannot rely on ‘bottomless wealth’ of Saudi owner-FT
• Slow global trade, Red Sea pressures still affecting DHL group revenues-CNBC
• Samvardhana Motherson Block Deal: Sources say Sumitomo Wiring may sell 4.5% stake-CNBC

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) OPEC expects share of Indian oil imports to rise again-RTRS 2) Return of US oil sanctions would clip Venezuela's output gains, analysts say-RTRS 3) Russia’s oil and gas revenue jumped in february in budget boost-BBG4) India cautious on contracted Russian oil as US sanctions bite-BBG 5) Turkish oil terminal halts Russian oil business-RTRS 5) FUJAIRAH DATA: Oil product stockpiles little changed on week-PLATTS