Exxon (XOM) Soars to 52-Week High, Time to Cash Out?

Have you been paying attention to shares of Exxon Mobil (XOM)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 3.3% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $84.28 in the previous session. Exxon Mobil has gained 37.4% since the start of the year compared to the 21.8% move for the Zacks Oils-Energy sector and the 27.1% return for the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on February 1, 2022, Exxon reported EPS of $2.05 versus consensus estimate of $1.96.

For the current fiscal year, Exxon is expected to post earnings of $7.51 per share on $316.69 billion in revenues. This represents a 39.78% change in EPS on a 10.87% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $6.56 per share on $304.65 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of -12.68% and -3.8%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

Exxon may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

Exxon has a Value Score of C. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and A, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 11.2X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is a premium to the peer industry average of 6.1X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 8.2X versus its peer group's average of 3.5X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 0.62. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Exxon currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Exxon fits the bill. Thus, it seems as though Exxon shares could still be poised for more gains ahead.

How Does XOM Stack Up to the Competition?

Shares of XOM have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR (VIST). VIST has a Zacks Rank of # 1 (Strong Buy) and a Value Score of A, a Growth Score of A, and a Momentum Score of A.

Earnings were strong last quarter. Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR beat our consensus estimate by 85%, and for the current fiscal year, VIST is expected to post earnings of $1.55 per share on revenue of $932.17 million.

Shares of Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR have gained 26.6% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 5.25X and a P/CF of 2.92X.

The Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry is in the top 10% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for XOM and VIST, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.