Credit: Shutterstock photoIs Remain Dead? We asked a similar question in a recent article entitled, Is Brexit Dead? The answer was no then despite polls that suggested otherwise (except ours, which continues to show a very strong expectation for Brexit – see latest results below). The answer to the question, Is Remain Dead? Is similarly no now although the recent swing in momentum has forced markets to re-price the risk of a Brexit outcome.
Click to participate in our Brexit poll
One aspect of our poll that differentiates it from others is we dig deeper asking feedback from those who participate. The replies can be very revealing in exploring the sentiments of those voting for either side. Ii this regard, the following feedback from our survey participants provide some insights into the current debate over whether to Brexit:
Voting Out of fear vs. Voting for Change
It is easier to energize those looking for change (i.e. leave) than those pushing for the status quo (i.e. remain). This is the dilemma the Remain side faces and why the government has run a fear campaign to scare those into voting for the known rather than the unknown. Don’t underestimate the power of fear, it is what the Remain side is counting on. How this plays out may not be decided until the vote is counted no matter what the polls say. The Remain side is hoping the late deciders opt for the status quo while the leave side is betting on turnout voting for change to rule the day.
Campaign of Fear
Osborne claims he would bring in public sector cuts and tax raising budget if Britain voted for a Brexit. A pro-Brexit MP on BBC Radio this morning said there were enough pro-Leave MP’s in Parliament to vote down any such budget if he tried to penalise the general public for voting for a Brexit. That would obviously be a vote of no confidence in the Government and mean a General Election where many pro-Remain MP’s would lose their seats, along with Cameron and Osbourne, making way for a Pro-Brexit administration to do the negotiations. Like most politicians I don’t think Cameron and Osborne would risk that in order to keep their jobs and “snouts in the trough”!
In the Home Stretch
Expect big promises or huge threats in next few days from remain side. EU will likely 'throw us a bone' to entice the undecided. We must vote leave and take this once in a lifetime opportunity to be free of Brussels and the ever expanding powers of the EU which none of us voted for or agreed to.
Conventional Wisdom but Is This Time Different?
Conventional wisdom says the undecided voters will vote for the status quo at the last minute and this is what the anti-Brexit camp is betting on. If conventional wisdom does not work this time then it would tilt the outcome the other way. Maybe this time it will be different. Only time will tell.
To sum up, the shift in polls that have turned mixed to favoring leave, depending on which one you look at has made this a horse race with historic implications. Stay tuned for our upcoming article where we ask whether voter expectations have changed.
Click to participate in our Brexit Poll
Jay Meisler, founder
Global Traders Association
www.tradersadvocate.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
