Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

#marketseverywhere | Global banks see no recession, US companies are more circumspect -RTRS

| markets pricing in aggressive rate cuts -will the Fed be able to keep up? | "futures are now pricing a 92% chance of a cut by March, along with 152bps of cuts in total by the December 2024 meeting" -Deutsche Bank

| Magnificent Seven (Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta) have lagged since the Fed pivot

| AAII Weekly Retail Sentiment: Bullish = highest level since April 2021, neutral fell, and bearish ticked up.

| December crowded trades + investor positioning as per BofA's Global Fund Manager Survey

* source: BofA's Global Fund Manager Survey

| Post Fed pivot performance - led by Small Caps, Energy, Real Estate | defensive stocks have been underperformers...

* source: Factset, produced by Gavin Zaentz

| "Falling inflation and a resilient labor market finally helped drive a large rebound in consumer confidence this month." -Oxford Economics

* source: Oxford Economics

| Economic growth concerns linger as per BofA's latest Fund Manager Survey, also a reason why Fed/central banks shifting gears...

* source: BofA, Global Fund Manager Survey

| “With Trump at roughly 50% in the polls, one could argue that even if two-thirds of DeSantis, Christie, and Ramaswamy voters coalesce behind Haley, which seems like a stretch, it’s still not enough.” -Piper Sandler

* source: Piper Sandler

| The 10YR US Treasury yield... falling on rate cut hopes but markets are aggressively pricing in rate cuts...

* source: CNBC

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

* source: CNBC

| Global stocks have traveled far as a result of central banks fighting inflation but has not gone anywhere over the last 2 years...

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

| disinflation + falling yields = big relief for equities, globally...

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

| by some standards, TYields still low...below 55YR average

* source: John Stoltzfus. Oppenheimer Asset Management

| Government debt levels have been rising... | "If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand." -Milton Friedman

* source: Oxford Economics

| rate cut winners?

* source: BofA, Global Fund Manager Survey

| some post office charts...because why not?

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities + Gold HIGHER / TYields + Oil + Dollar LOWER

DJ +0.8% S&P500 +0.7% Nasdaq +0.8% R2K +1.2% Cdn TSX +0.9%

Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3% APAC stocks MIXED, 10YR TYield = 3.858%

Dollar LOWER, Gold $2,042, WTI -1%, $74; Brent -1%, $79, Bitcoin $43,646

2) "The claims data – along with other recent labor market statistics – are consistent with a job market that is cooling but not freezing" | "Initial jobless claims were little changed in the week ended December 16."

* source: Oxford Economics

3) Broad based sustained earnings recovery needed for a sustained rally | S&P 500 CY2023 earnings preview: <1% growth expected -Factset Insight

* source: Factset Insight

4) 2023 shaping up to be like 1998, only 29% of stocks are outperforming this year...

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

5) excess liquidity in Eurozone by Deutsche Bank | as long as excess liquidity is elevated will it usher in inflation?

* source: Deutsche Bank

6) recession in 2024?

7) THIS WEEK:

-US PCE + personal income + spending data will be key

-Inflation reports in the UK + Japan.
-BoJ decision on Tuesday

-Notable earnings include Nike and Micron.

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

OFF TODAY

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Vilified zero-day options blamed by traders for S&P decline-BBG
• Interview with Luis de Guindos, conducted by Ordiz and Jorge Millán-ECB
• Bank of England takes heat for hawkish stance as UK inflation cools-FT
• Gradual easing: RBI cites risk of rise in food prices-IT
• Global banks see no recession, US companies are more circumspect-RTRS
• Cheaper mortgages to ease cost of living pain-LT
• Japan government sees income growth beating inflation next year-BBG
• Exports gain 13 pct during first 20 days of December-YNA
• United States weighs hike in tariffs on Chinese EVs -WSJ-RTRS
• Mainland China sends ‘warning’ ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election-SCMP
• US and UK tighten enforcement of Russian oil price cap-FT
• Exporters explore cargo flights as way out of Red Sea bottleneck-RTRS
• China suspends US$6.5 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina-SCMP
• Americans freed by Venezuela in US prisoner swap land at Texas base-RTRS
• Shanghai, Beijing home sales surge after policy easing-BBG
• China major banks to cut time deposit rates on Friday – sources-RTRS 

• Boeing granted key clearance by CAAC to prepare 737 Max aircraft-TAC
• UnitedHealth receives $610 million offer for Brazil unit-BBG
• US considering hiking tariffs on China EVs, solar products, WSJ reports-BBG
• Saudis dial up investors’ interest in BT-LT
• Top ProSieben investor MFE 'sceptical' over strategy as shares slide-RTRS
• Euronext CEO rules out another Allfunds bid in acquisition hunt-RTRS
• Swisscom is weighing bid for Vodafone Italy early next year-BBG
• Gloria Ortiz to replace Dancausa as CEO of Spain's Bankinter-RTRS

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) US crude, gasoline and distillate stocks rose by more than expected last week-RTRS 2) G7 tightens enforcement of oil price cap amid widespread Russian evasion-NYT 3) Five mln barrels of Russian Sokol oil stuck en route to India - Bloomberg News-RTRS 4) UAE central bank expects oil GDP to grow by 8.1% in 2024, non-oil growth to slow to 4.7% - WAM-RTRS 5) Transatlantic resilience brings peak oil within sight-FT 6) U.S. Gulf coast crude oil exports on track to reach new highs in 2023-RBN 7) How companies are responding to attacks on ships in the Red Sea-RTRS