Monday, November 17, 2025
With the federal government having finally ended its shutdown last week, this week we can get back to the business of examining economic reports. Chief of these is expected to be the U.S. Employment Report due Thursday morning. Where we last left off, an average of only +29K new jobs created over the past four months was making the Fed nervous about an unraveling labor market, which helped them decide to cut interest rates even as inflation metrics were ticking back up.
Compare this to the previous four-month average +122K and the +209K in the four months before that. The Unemployment Rate reached +4.3% in our last print, the highest since October 2021 (when unemployment was still falling precipitously; we had been as high as +14.9% at the Covid peak in April of 2020. New data on non-farm payrolls will be a welcome sight, whether or not the situation improves. Either way, we’ll no longer be flying blind.
Despite President Trump’s recent claim that the U.S. has “virtually no inflation,” last Friday he reversed tariff policy on food staple imports. These include beef, coffee and bananas, from countries like Guatemala, Ecuador and Argentina. Overall, more than 200 household items will be exempted from tariff policies, and just in time for Americans to prep their Thanksgiving dinner festivities.
Empire State Growth Highest in a Year: 18.7
The Empire State Manufacturing Index for November came in more than 3x higher than expected to 18.7 this morning, following 10.7 the previous month and the highest since November of last year. It’s also the fourth positive manufacturing print for the state of New York in the last five months. New orders and shipments were both up, while input and selling prices pulled back to still-elevated levels.
From March through June, Empire State manufacturing reported sub-zero tallies, so this reversal is welcome news indeed. That said, optimism among manufacturers in New York going forward has come down somewhat in this latest survey, to 19.1 from 30.3 last time around.
Earnings Update Ahead of the Bell
Calendar Q3 earnings season is winding down this week, and the reason we know this is because NVIDIA NVDA is reporting earnings this week, on Wednesday after the bell. Expectations are still enormous from the $4.6 trillion-dollar market cap chipmaker: +53.1% on earnings growth and +55.7% on revenues. It has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters by an average of +3.56%. NVIDIA currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
This is also a big earnings week for retailers. These include Home Depot HD on Tuesday, Target TGT and The TJX Companies TJX Wednesday and Walmart WMT on Thursday. All of these companies are presently Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)-rated firms going into their earnings prints.
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>
Radical New Technology Could Hand Investors Huge Gains
Quantum Computing is the next technological revolution, and it could be even more advanced than AI.
While some believed the technology was years away, it is already present and moving fast. Large hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and even Meta and Tesla, are scrambling to integrate quantum computing into their infrastructure.
Senior Stock Strategist Kevin Cook reveals 7 carefully selected stocks poised to dominate the quantum computing landscape in his report, Beyond AI: The Quantum Leap in Computing Power.
Kevin was among the early experts who recognized NVIDIA's enormous potential back in 2016. Now, he has keyed in on what could be "the next big thing" in quantum computing supremacy. Today, you have a rare chance to position your portfolio at the forefront of this opportunity.
See Top Quantum Stocks Now >>Target Corporation (TGT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Walmart Inc. (WMT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
