Key Points
Despite aggressive price forecasts over the past 24 months, XRP still trades around the $1 mark.
As long as investors embrace a risk-off mentality, Bitcoin will continue to outperform the vast majority of speculative altcoins.
The change in investor mindset to a risk-on mentality is typically referred to as "altcoin season."
- 10 stocks we like better than XRP ›
It's easy to understand why many crypto investors might be frustrated with XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) right now. For more than two years, they've been hearing how this altcoin is about to skyrocket in value. Yet, XRP continues to trade around the $1 price level. It's now 62% below its 52-week high from last summer.
For that reason, I'm avoiding XRP right now. There's only one event that might convince me to accumulate XRP in 2026: The arrival of altcoin season in the crypto market.
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What is altcoin season?
In crypto parlance, "altcoin season" refers to the time of the year when speculative cryptocurrencies tend to soar in value. During this period, they wildly outperform Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), and become the place to put your money if you're looking for outsized returns.
Admittedly, for some investors, altcoin season is just a vibe. It's the reason to transition from a risk-off mindset to a risk-on mindset. When that happens, highly speculative altcoins such as XRP become more attractive.
Image source: Getty Images.
However, there's actually a simple mathematical way to figure out the arrival of altcoin season. All you have to do is compare the returns of the top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) to that of Bitcoin over the past 90 days. If 75 or more of these cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin during that period, it's altcoin season. If not, then it's still Bitcoin season.
Right now, we're not even close to altcoin season. According to data from CoinMarketCap, only 41 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies have beaten Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
Generally speaking, altcoins are taking it on the chin right now. XRP, for example, is down 28% over the past 90 days. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is down 24%. Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) is down 34%. The list goes on and on.
It's hard to find any top-tier names performing well right now. In fact, just half of the 41 cryptocurrencies beating Bitcoin are in the green right now (the other half are just "less negative" than Bitcoin, which is down 15% over the past 90 days). That doesn't leave a lot of margin for error, which is why it's safe to avoid XRP right now.
A year without altcoin season?
The worrisome part of all this, of course, is that altcoin season might not come at all this year. As long as geopolitical risk continues to be priced into the crypto market, it's hard to see many investors suddenly developing an appetite for wildly speculative altcoins.
Moreover, the one catalyst that was supposed to herald the arrival of altcoin season -- the passage of new crypto legislation known as the CLARITY Act -- now looks like it won't happen until later in the year, or perhaps even until 2027. If that's the case, then this might be (yikes!) a year without an altcoin season.
So, for now, I'm not buying XRP. Instead, I'm waiting for investor sentiment to improve and putting my money into less speculative crypto assets such as Bitcoin.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
