Delta Air Lines DAL is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 13, before the market opens.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.55 per share, indicating a 16.22% year-over-year decrease, and has been revised 11.43% downward over the past 60 days. The same for revenues is pegged at $15.45 billion, indicating a 0.7% decrease from the fourth-quarter 2024 actuals.
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For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $5.82 per share, indicating a 5.52% year-over-year decrease, and has been revised 3.32% downward over the past 60 days. The same for revenues is pegged at $62.08 billion, indicating a 0.7% increase from the 2024 actuals.
DAL has an impressive earnings surprise history, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. The average beat is 8.9%.
Delta Air Lines Price and EPS Surprise
Delta Air Lines price-eps-surprise | Delta Air Lines Quote
Given this backdrop, let us examine the factors that might have influenced Delta Air Lines’ performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
We expect upbeat passenger volumes to have boosted DAL’s top-line performance in the December quarter. Notably, the majority of passenger revenues are likely to have come from domestic markets. Upbeat passenger volumes during the Thanksgiving holiday period are likely to have boosted the top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
However, the prolonged government shutdown is anticipated to reduce the company’s December-quarter pre-tax profitability by almost $200 million, or about 25 cents per share. The 43-day shutdown has hampered operations and resulted in multiple flight cancellations.
High labor costs are also likely to have hurt the bottom line. We expect non-fuel unit cost or cost per available seat mile (CASM: adjusted) for the December quarter to increase 1.5% from fourth-quarter 2024 levels.
What Our Model Says About DAL
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Delta Air Lines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Delta Air Lines has an Earnings ESP of -1.41% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Highlights of DAL’s Q3 Earnings
Delta Air Lines reported third-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 46 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.71 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52. Earnings increased 14% on a year-over-year basis due to low fuel costs.
Revenues in the September-end quarter were $16.67 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.79 billion and increasing 5.6% on a year-over-year basis, owing to improving air-travel demand. Adjusted operating revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) increased 4.1% year over year to $15.2 billion.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
United Parcel Service UPS has an Earnings ESP of +2.31% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
UPS is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Jan. 27. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 2.33% upward over the past 60 days. UPS’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed in the remaining one, the average beat being 11.2%.
United Airlines UAL has an Earnings ESP of +0.59% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. UAL is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Jan. 20.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 8.7% downward over the past 60 days. UAL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 8.8%.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
