Markets

Daily Markets: Nvidia Soars, Feb Flash PMI on Deck

Man wearing face mask in front of stock market board
Credit: Aly Song - Reuters / stock.adobe.com

Today’s Big Picture

Asia-Pacific equity markets finished the day up across the board. Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries came close to flat but eked out a 0.07% gain. South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.41%, India’s SENSEX rose 0.74%, and Taiwan’s TAIEX advanced 0.94%. While Nvidia earnings boosted markets, China and Hong Kong got an extra nudge from regulators’ ban on institutional shareholders selling around the open or close as China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed 1.27% and 1.45% higher, respectively. Japan’s market continues to party like it’s 1989 as the Nikkei rose 2.19% to set a new all-time high. Major European markets are up across the board in midday trading and U.S. equity futures are pointing to an unusually strong open.

Consensus-smashing January results paired with guidance above market forecasts is lifting Nvidia (NVDAshares in pre-market trading and that is fueling U.S. equity futures. Soon after the market open, S&P Global will publish its Flash February Manufacturing and Services PMIs. That first hard look at February will be picked over as investors seek to gauge not only the speed of the economy but job creation during the month and whether February inflation could repeat its January upside surprise. Ahead of this report, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Model is at 2.9% for the current quarter. However, with investors walking a tightrope between the economic benefits of a stronger-than-expected economy and expected timing for rate cuts, the Flash February PMI report may not provide the answers about a May rate cut some are looking for. But with five Fed speakers making the rounds today, the topic is likely to get some play today.

Data Download

International Economy

The Flash February reading for the au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 47.2 in February 2024 from 48.0 in January, missing the market consensus of 48.2. The Flash Services PMI declined to 52.5 in February from January's four-month high of 53.1 amid softer rises in output.

Preliminary readings found the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.1 in February from 46.6 the month before, missing market expectations of 47. The Flash reading for the HCOB Flash Eurozone Services PMI increased to 50 in February, the highest in seven months and ahead of forecasts for a reading of 48.8. The Flash Services data showed net hiring reached an eight-month high and that both input and output cost inflation rose the most in nine months. The inflation rate in the Euro Area was confirmed at 2.8% in January, little changed from December's 2.9% and above the European Central Bank's target of 2.0%. The core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, cooled for the sixth consecutive month to 3.3%, reaching its lowest point since March 2022, but only down a tick compared to December’s 3.4% figure. 

The S&P Global Flash UK Flash Manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.1 in February 2024 from 47 in January but below market forecasts of 47.5. Turning to the Services sector, the Flash PMI held steady at 54.3 in February, matching January's eight-month high, surpassing the expected 54.1.

Domestic Economy

Before S&P publishes its Flash February PMI data at 9:45 AM ET, the weekly jobless claims figures will be released. Soon after the PMIs and supporting data are revealed, January Existing Home Sales figures will be released, and the market is looking for that activity to rise to 3.97 million homes, up from 3.78 million in December. 

Markets

Yesterday was a positive day overall as all sectors except Technology (-0.63%), which was dragged lower by Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and pre-earnings release Nvidia and Communication Services (-0.11%), which came under pressure from Meta Platforms (META), closed higher. Energy (1.88%) and Utilities (1.32%) led the way. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 added 0.13% while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32% and the Russell 2000 declined 0.47%. Here’s how the major market indicators stack up year-to-date: 

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 2.45%
  • S&P 500: 4.44%
  • Nasdaq Composite: 3.79%
  • Russell 2000: -1.59%
  • Bitcoin (BTC-USD): 23.56%
  • Ether (ETH-USD): 29.58%

Stocks to Watch

Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Cars.com (CARS), Fiverr (FVRR), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Moderna (MRNA), and Planet Fitness (PLNT) are expected to release quarterly earnings before equities begin trading later this morning. Pre-market breadth is stronger today as 315 names in the S&P 500 have traded hands so far this morning with 247 gainers and 68 decliners. Unsurprisingly, Nvidia is leading the gainers board, on track to open over 14% higher (more below), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is catching a strong bid and cruise lines seem to be having a good morning as Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Carnival Corp (CCL) are set to open over 5% higher. Etsy (ETSY) is coming under some pressure following the latest earnings release (more below).

Nvidia reported consensus-smashing January quarter results with EPS of $5.16 compared to the $4.59 market forecast. Revenue for the quarter soared 265.3% YoY to $22.1 billion, easily outpacing the $20.4 billion consensus forecast. Data Center revenue rose 409% YoY (27% QoQ) to a record $18.4 billion. Gaming revenue was $2.9 billion, flat from the previous quarter and up 56% YoY. For the current April quarter, Nvidia sees its top line between $23.52-$24.48 billion versus the $22.21 billion consensus. Inside that forecast, the company expects sequential growth in Data Center and its ProViz business partially offset by a seasonal decline in Gaming.

Mixed December quarter results led Rivian Automotive (RIVN) shares lower in aftermarket trading last night. Revenue rose 98.3% YoY to $1.31 billion outpacing the $1.28 billion consensus but the company’s bottom line missed consensus forecasts by $0.01 per share. In 2023, the company produced 57,232 vehicles and delivered 50,122, more than doubling production and deliveries from 2022. For 2024, Rivian targets producing 57,000 vehicles and adjusted EBITDA of -$2.7 billion. Alongside those results, the company announced it is reducing its salaried workforce by approximately 10%.

Shares of Lucid Group (LCIDwere also hard hit after the company missed top-line expectations for its most recent quarter. Revenue fell 39% YoY to 157.2 million as it delivered 1,734 vehicles during the quarter. For 2024, Lucid targets producing 9,000 vehicles. 

Shares of Etsy were under pressure following mixed December quarter results and guidance for the current quarter that was weaker than expected. For the current quarter, the company is guiding its gross merchandise sales (GMS) to decline in the low-single-digit range on a year-over-year basis, but if trends don’t improve as expected its GMS faces a mid-single-digit decline. 

Social media platform Reddit has struck a deal with Alphabet’s Google (GOOGLGOOGto make its content available for training the search engine giant's artificial intelligence models.

Chord Energy (CHRD) and Enerplus (ERF) agreed to a cash and stock merger valued at ~$11B, including debt, creating a Williston Basin-focused E&P company. Under the deal terms, each Enerplus common share will be exchanged for 0.10125 Chord common shares and $1.84/share in cash, representing 90% stock and 10% cash consideration.

IPOs

Readers who want to dig deeper into the upcoming IPO calendar should visit Nasdaq’s Latest & Upcoming IPOs page.

After Today’s Market Close

Alarm.com (ALRM), Block (SQ), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Carvana (CVNA), Expensify (EXPI), Floor & Decor (FND), indie Semiconductor (INDI), Live Nation (LYV), Rocket Companies (RKT), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Universal Display (OLED), and ZipRecruiters (ZIP) are expected to report quarterly results after equities stop trading today. Those looking for more on upcoming quarterly earnings reports should head on over to Nasdaq’s Earnings Calendar

On the Horizon

Monday, Thursday, February 26

  • US: New Home Sales - January 

Tuesday, February 27

  • Japan: Inflation Rate – January
  • Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence – March
  • US: Durable Orders – January 
  • US: S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index – February 
  • US: Consumer Confidence – February 

Wednesday, February 28

  • Eurozone: Economic Sentiment & Consumer Confidence - February
  • US: Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications 
  • US: GDP (Second Estimate) – 4Q 2023 
  • US: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories 

Thursday, February 29

  • Japan: Retail Sales, Housing Starts – January
  • Germany: Retail Sales, Inflation Rate – January
  • UK: Bank of England Consumer Credit - January
  • US: Weekly Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims 
  • US: Personal Income & Spending, PCE Price Index – January 
  • US: Pending Home Sales – January 
  • US: Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories 

Friday, Mach 1

  • Japan: Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Final) - January
  • China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI - February
  • China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI – January
  • Eurozone: HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Final) – February
  • UK: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) - February
  • US: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) – February 
  • US: ISM Manufacturing Index – February

Thought for the Day

"Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean." ~Charlie Munger

Disclosures

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Chris Versace

Christopher (Chris) Versace is the Chief Investment Officer and thematic strategist at Tematica Research. The proprietary thematic investing framework that he’s developed over the last decade leverages changing economic, demographic, psychographic and technology landscapes to identify pronounced, multi-year structural changes. This framework sits at the heart of Tematica’s investment themes and indices and builds on his more than 25 years analyzing industries, companies and their business models as well as financial statements. Versace is the co-author of “Cocktail Investing: Distilling Everyday Noise into Clear Investing Signals” and hosts the Thematic Signals podcast. He is also an Assistant Professor at NJCU School of Business, where he developed the NJCU New Jersey 50 Index.

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Mark Abssy

Mark Abssy is Head of Indexing at Tematica Research focused on index and Exchange Traded Product development. He has product development and management experience with Indexes, ETFs, ETNs, Mutual Funds and listed derivatives. In his 25 year career he has held product development and management positions at NYSE|ICE, ISE ETF Ventures, Morgan Stanley, Fidelity Investments and Loomis Sayles. He received a BSBA from Northeastern University with a focus in Finance and International Business.

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