Tuesday, May 13, 2025
Pre-market futures are mixed after one of the best sessions in the stock market in years. With the surprise stepping-down of UnitedHealthcare UNH CEO Andrew Witty for “personal reasons,” effective immediately, the Dow component helped move the index -135 points at this hour. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, on the other hand, are +5 points and +55 points, respectively — both off early-morning highs.
CPI for April Comes In-Line at Post-Covid Lows
Arguably the biggest economic print of this week is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of April. This not only brings us a new applicable Inflation Rate (CPI headline, year over year), but it also gives us a first glimpse into pricing issues based on the initial salvos in the (now cooling) global trade war.
Headline CPI month over month came in as expected at +0.2%, swinging to a positive from the previous month’s unrevised -0.1%, which hit lows not seen since four years ago. Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, the “core” read on monthly CPI also reached +0.2% — 10 basis points (bps) below estimates and up 10 bps from the prior month.
The Inflation Rate for April came in at a 4-year low to +2.3%, 10 bps beneath expectations and the unrevised +2.4% from March. Core CPI year over year reached +2.8%, in-line with estimates and also sitting at 4-year lows. These are all numbers investors and economists will presumably know how to deal with, even if they remain a bit hotter than the Fed’s optimal inflation rate of +2%.
Small Business Optimism Stays Relatively Weak
Also for April, the NFIB Small Business Index is out this morning, with the headline print coming in at 95.8 — better than the consensus estimate of 95.0, but well below the half-century average of 98 for the second-straight month. This follows a 97.4 posted a month ago.
The NFIB Uncertainty Index came in down -4 points to 92 for April. This is much higher uncertainty than the average monthly print of 68. Small business owners said 34% of open jobs remained unfilled last month, the lowest we’ve seen since January 2021, 10 months into the U.S. Covid Era, just before mass vaccinations were made available.
Q1 Earnings Roundup: Honda, JD, CyberArk
Honda Motor Company HMC posted a widely mixed fiscal Q4 report this morning, missing on earnings by -75% to 18 cents per ADS (from 72 cents expected). Revenues of $47.26 billion, on the other hand, swung to a profit of +6.2% year over year from an expected loss of -2.7%. This is the second earnings miss for the Japanese automaking giant in the past three quarters.
Shares are down -4.5% in pre-market trading on this news, giving up more than half the stock’s gains year to date. It’s also important to point out that +25% tariffs on all Honda autos imported to the U.S. remain in place, and even if a deal is struck with Japan tomorrow, damage to fiscal Q1 numbers is likely already baked into the cake. (You can see the full Zacks Earnings Calendar here.)
Chinese e-commerce major JD.com JD posted beats on both top and bottom lines in its Q1 results posted ahead of today’s open. Earnings of $1.16 per ADS outpaced the Zacks consensus by +10%, while revenues of $41.8 billion (equivalent from Chinese yuan) surpassed the $40.2 billion analysts had been expecting. JD is one of the main beneficiaries of the Chinese government’s consumer stimulus package begun last year.
Israeli ID-management software firm CyberArk CYBR also outperformed expectations in this morning’s Q1 release: earnings of 98 cents per ADS amounted to a +24% beat over consensus, with revenues of $317.6 million bettering estimates by +3.9% in the quarter. Yet investors are selling the news, with the stock -2% in today’s pre-market. For more on CYBR's earnings, click here.
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